September aluminium liquid aluminium falls short of expectations; October expected to edge down

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in September 2026 (30 days) rose 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y and fell 3.2 per cent M-o-M. In September, downstream demand in China recovered somewhat M-o-M, but processing fees for some processed products remained under pressure, leading to production cuts and halts at some downstream enterprises. Purchase willingness for liquid aluminium subsequently weakened, dragging down the proportion of liquid aluminium output. The liquid aluminium ratio fell 0.5 percentage points M-o-M to 78.2 per cent during the month, coming in below expectations at the start of the month, with the main reductions coming from parts of central China and South China.

Based on SMM's liquid aluminium ratio calculations, casting ingot production in China fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y and 0.8 per cent M-o-M in September.

Capacity changes: As of end-September, SMM statistics showed existing aluminium capacity in China stood at approximately 46.2887 million tonnes, flat M-o-M.

Production forecast: Entering October 2026, affected by the National Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will cut or halt production, causing the liquid aluminium ratio to pull back temporarily. Additionally, processing fees for some downstream products still face downside risks, putting pressure on liquid aluminium demand. Overall, the liquid aluminium ratio is expected to fall 0.3 percentage points to 77.9 per cent.

Note: This article has been shared by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.