In the first half (H1) of 2026, the US imported a total of 1.68 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum (HSN code: 7601), of which 16.96% was sourced from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). How has H1 2026 fared for the momentum of unwrought aluminum exports from the UAE to the US? Year-on-year cooling in trade can be noticed, largely owing to the temporary shutdown of the Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA’s) Al Taweelah smelter for repair and maintenance. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ” H1 aluminum trade snapshot: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024 Comparing the H1 2026 figures of unwrought aluminum exported by the UAE to the US, a mixed result...
Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
Grow with
AL Circle
Mexico has secured a 90-day delay on the implementation of new 30 per cent US tariffs on selected imports, following an agreement between US President Donald Trump and Mexico’s President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum. The extension, however, is conditional on Mexico’s commitment to address a broad range of non-tariff trade barriers that have long strained bilateral economic relations. While the delay offers short-term relief, several existing tariffs remain firmly in place. These include a 25 per cent levy on products linked to fentanyl and unauthorized migration, another 25 per cent on automobiles, and a steep 50 per cent tariff on steel, aluminium, and copper. Additionally, the 17.09 per cent countervailing duty on Mexican tomatoes has not been lifted. As part of the agreement, Mexico has...
Aluminium futures slipped on Friday, with August contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading at INR 249.30, down 0.46 per cent, after the Trump administration announced a fresh round of tariffs scheduled to take effect within a week. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month aluminium contracts also declined by about 1.4 per cent to USD 2,565 per tonne. Despite the near-term dip, analysts remain optimistic about the metal’s outlook. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking, pointed to rising Chinese demand and tightening global supply as key supportive factors. He added that progress in US–China trade negotiations and Beijing’s recent approval of a massive CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project are likely to drive sustained industrial...
When the European Union and the United States announced the formation of a new “metals alliance” on July 28, 2025, it signalled more than just tariff alignment. It marked a turning point, a coordinated effort to shield their domestic metals sectors from a common adversary: China’s state-driven overcapacity, particularly in steel and aluminium. While the alliance has been framed around steel safeguards and trade architecture, it is aluminium that now demands equal, if not greater, strategic focus. Image source: https://assets.weforum.org/ The proposed framework aims to replace Section 232-era tariffs with quota-based access to the US market for EU metals and jointly coordinate trade defence tools across aluminium, copper, and steel. European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič summed up the...
As August 1 approaches, trade discussions between the US and Canada have shifted focus amid ongoing concerns over aluminium tariffs. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on July 31, 2025, acknowledged the financial strain faced by American manufacturers, particularly Ford Motor Company and signalled potential tariff relief for Canada's aluminium and steel industries. In June, Trump announced a tariff hike on global aluminium and steel imports, doubling the rate to 50 per cent. The move was justified on national security grounds, citing insufficient domestic production of the critical metals. The US and Canada are engaged in negotiations to resolve the ongoing aluminium and steel tariff dispute ahead of the approaching Friday deadline. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney...
Vedanta Limited missed quarterly profit estimates for the first quarter of FY26, as weaker aluminium and copper prices, coupled with a sharp increase in tax expenses, weighed on earnings. Despite strong domestic demand and robust operational performance across its business segments, the metals-to-oil conglomerate saw its bottom line shrink. Image source: Vedanta In Q1 FY26, Vedanta reported a consolidated net profit of INR 4,457 crore, down 13 per cent from INR 5,095 crore in the same quarter last year. This decline came even as revenue rose 6 per cent year-on-year to INR 37,434 crore, up from INR 35,239 crore in Q1 FY25, supported by higher product premiums and favourable foreign exchange movements. The dip in profit was primarily driven by a steep rise in tax expenses, which nearly...
On Thursday, July 31, both LME aluminium cash bid price and LME aluminium official settlement price witnessed significant drop of USD 30.5 per tonne or 1.16 per cent and USD 31 per tonne or 1.18 per cent, compared to the previous day. This drop can be attributed to the ongoing economic concerns in China, where manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth straight month. As per the LME price graph, from Monday to Thursday, the prices have shown a fluctuating output. On the same day, both 3-month bid price and 3-month offer price also declined by USD 33 per tonne or 1.24 per cent and USD 33.5 per tonne or 1.28 per cent. The prices closed at USD 2,581 per tonne and USD 2,581.5 per tonne. December 26 bid price and December 26 offer price dropped by USD 33 per tonne to halt at USD 2,625 per...
Alcoa Corporation, a prominent global aluminium producer, has once again demonstrated its financial resilience by maintaining a consistent quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.10 per share for both its common stock and Series A convertible preferred stock. Despite ongoing challenges such as falling aluminium prices, rising tariffs and global market uncertainties, the company's Q2 2025 earnings showcased strong operational performance and a robust cash position, reaffirming its shareholder-focused capital strategy. On July 30, 2025, the firm announced that its Board of Directors had declared the quarterly cash dividend. The dividend includes USD 0.10 per share on the company's common stock and a corresponding dividend on its Series A convertible preferred stock. Both are scheduled to be paid...
Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices saw modest gains on July 30 compared to the previous day, while inventories also edged up. The LME aluminium cash bid price rose to USD 2,610 per tonne, up 0.11 per cent from USD 2,607 per tonne on July 29. The cash offer price moved up 0.08 per cent to USD 2,611 per tonne from USD 2609 per tonne. The 3-month bid price climbed 0.27 per cent to USD 2,614 per tonne, while the offer price increased 0.27 per cent to USD 2,615 per tonne. Also read: Rio Tinto’s H1 2025 net earnings fall 22% amid tariff impact and higher capex For December 26 contracts, the bid price advanced 0.23 per cent to USD 2,658 per tonne from USD 2652 per tonne from the previous day and the offer price also gained 0.23 per cent to USD 2,663 per tonne. Meanwhile, the LME 3-month Asian...
Rio Tinto reported a mixed set of financial results for the first half of 2025, as softer commodity prices, surging capital expenditure, and steep US aluminium tariffs weighed on its performance. Image source: Rio Tinto The company reported net cash generated from operating activities of USD 6,924 million, down 1.9 per cent from USD 7,056 million in H1 2024, reflecting margin compression and elevated cost pressures. Free cash flow declined sharply to USD 1,962 million, a 31 per cent fall from USD 2,843 million a year earlier, primarily due to a significant rise in investment. Capital expenditure, including purchases of property, plant, equipment, and intangible assets rose to USD 4,734 million, up from USD 4,018 million in H1 2024. Sales revenue remained largely flat at USD 26,873...
Vedanta Aluminium, known to be India's largest aluminium producer, is set to undertake the largest manufacturing capital expenditure of Q1 FY26 with a greenfield aluminium smelter project valued at INR 1.3 trillion (USD 15.64 billion) in Odisha. The investment reflects growing private sector confidence and underpins Vedanta's plans for a 3 MTPA smelter integrated with a 4,900 MW power plant set up near Kamakhyanagarin, Odisha's Dhenkanal district. Image source: linkedin.com Once operational, the project is expected to generate over 200,000 jobs and drive sustained economic growth in the region through the development of auxiliary industries, infrastructure improvements and enhanced logistics. In Q1 FY26, private sector investments totalled INR 3.5 trillion (USD 42.11 billion), with...
Constellium SE delivered a mixed financial performance for the second quarter and first half of 2025, as solid revenue growth was overshadowed by steep declines in profitability, margins, and cash flow. Image Source: constellium.com Constellium’s Q2 2025 revenue rose 10.5 per cent year-over-year to USD 2.1 billion, supported by favourable pricing, currency effects, and modest volume gains. Shipments increased 1.6 per cent to 384 thousand metric tons, driven mainly by strong performance in the Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products (P&ARP) segment. However, profitability deteriorated sharply. Net income fell 53.2 per cent to USD 36 million, and adjusted EBITDA dropped 37.3 per cent to USD 146 million, largely due to a significant swing in metal price lag, which shifted from a USD 45...
On Tuesday, July 29, both LME aluminium cash bid price and LME aluminium official settlement price witnessed a significant decline of USD 25 per tonne or 0.94 per cent and USD 23.5 per tonne or 0.89 per cent. The prices closed at USD 2,607 per tonne and USD 2,609 per tonne from USD 2,632 per tonne and USD 2,632.5 per tonne. Image Source: London Metal Exchange As per the LME price graph, 3-month bid price and 3-month offer price also declined by USD 24.5 per tonne or 0.93 per cent and USD 24 per tonne or 0.91 per cent to halt at USD 2,607 per tonne and USD 2,608 per tonne. December 26 bid price and December 26 offer price lost USD 13 per tonne or 0.48 per cent to clock at USD 2,652 per tonne and USD 2,657 per tonne. LME aluminium 3-month Asian Reference Price dropped by USD 26 per tonne or...
As the clock ticks toward an August 1 trade deadline, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pressuring the federal government to respond decisively to escalating US tariffs. Ford has urged Ottawa to impose matching 50 per cent tariffs on American steel and aluminium, should talks fail to produce a new bilateral deal. Speaking at Queen’s Park on Monday, Ford said, “We are working on Aug 1 and we will see what comes from that. But I have always taken the approach dollar-for-dollar and tariff-for-tariff. If he (Trump) wants to attack our hardworking steel workers and aluminium workers, then we have to meet that 50 per cent tariff.” His comments come in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat of an additional 35 per cent tariff on a wider list of Canadian goods, a move that would add to the...
The Indian metal sector has experienced notable fluctuations in stock performance over recent weeks, with key players like NALCO, Vedanta Aluminium and Hindalco showing mixed trends across different timeframes. A closer look at their stock price movements reveals underlying market sentiments and evolving dynamics within the sector. Week-on-week analysis When the market opened on July 22, 2025, NALCO's stock was priced at INR 196.47 (USD 2.35) and closed marginally lower at INR 196.45 (USD 2.35), indicating stable performance. However, by July 25, the stock touched a high of INR 199.35 (USD 2.39) before retreating to close at INR 193.50 (USD 2.31), marking a 2.93 per cent decline. The downward trend continued and as the market closed on July 28, the share price had further declined to INR...
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged lower on July 28 compared to July 25, with both spot and futures contracts showing a marginal decline. The cash bid price fell 0.92 per cent from USD 2,656.5 per tonne on July 25 to USD 2,632 per tonne on July 28, while the cash offer also slipped 0.92 per cent to USD 2,632.5 per tonne. Similarly, 3-month contracts saw modest downward movement. The 3-month bid price dropped from USD 2,655.5 per tonne to USD 2,631.5 per tonne, while the offer price eased from USD 2,656 per tonne to USD 2,632 per tonne, both marking a decrease of approximately 0.90 per cent. Forward prices also weakened. The December 26 bid price dipped 0.86 per cent to USD 2,665 per tonne, and the offer price slid 0.86 per cent to USD 2,670 per tonne, down from USD...
The world primary aluminium production seems to have withstood all the recent hurdles like escalating trade tensions, raw material costs, and supply chain disruptions with a decent growth rate of 1.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Albeit a slower than in 2024, the growth in the world’s primary aluminium production in Q2 2025 was largely encouraged by the bullish aluminium price trend on the London Metal Exchange, ranging between USD 2,499 per tonne and USD 2,593 per tonne. However, the increased LME alumina (Platts) price reaching above USD 363 per tonne dampened the mood of primary aluminium producers slightly, offsetting the output volume. Nonetheless, the world primary aluminium production closed the H1 with a Y-o-Y hike, amounting to 36.459 million tonnes versus...
India's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the UK, signed with hopes of unlocking duty-free market access, has come under fire from trade experts and industry leaders for omitting carbon tax exemptions. This omission, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), could undermine Indian exports worth USD 775 million annually, including key commodities like aluminium, steel, fertiliser, and cement, starting in 2027. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said, "From January 2027, the UK can impose carbon taxes on Indian steel and aluminium, even as we grant UK goods duty-free access. That's a serious asymmetry." The UK plans to roll out its own Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), following the European Union's lead, to tax high-carbon imports. This border levy will apply to sectors...
The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices on Friday, July 25, closed the week hitting a four-month high. The prices hiked by USD 10.5 per tonne or 0.39 per cent to settle at USD 2,656.5 per tonne and USD 2,657 per tonne, driven by more optimistic demand outlook in China and tightening global supply conditions. Market sentiment also improved as traders closely followed developments in US-China trade negotiations, raising hopes for a potential boost in industrial metal demand. On the same day, 3-month bid price and 3-month offer price also gained USD 7.5 per tonne or 0.28 per cent to halt at USD 2,655.5 per tonne and USD 2,656 per tonne. As per the LME aluminium price graph, December 26 bid price and December 26 offer price surged by USD 10 per tonne or 0.37 per cent to peg at USD...
