
The prices of prebaked anode in December are expected to fall on suspension of high cost downstream aluminium smelters and lower impact of 2018/2019 winter production cuts in the primary sector, SMM expects.
Some 1.96 million tonnes of capacity was cut for this winter in major prebaked anode producing provinces of Shandong and Henan, compared with around 6 million tonnes last year.
{alcircleadd}Actual impact of the cutbacks is likely to fall short of the expected 1.96 million tonnes, as low prices of prebaked anode kept producers below full production over the year, SMM learned.

In Shandong, where prebaked anode capacity accounted for 30.8% of overall capacity in China, only 530,000 tonnes of capacity was required to suspend during the winter. In Henan, a total of 14 prebaked anode plants received winter cuts notice, affecting 1.43 million tonnes of capacity, an SMM survey found.
High-costs downstream aluminium smelters are likely to cut production in the short run. Average production cost at those smelters is assessed at RMB14,800 per tonne as of Friday November 23.
Prices of prebaked anode prices in east China stood at RMB3, 575-3,775 per tonnes as of last Friday. This was flat from the start of early October, according to SMM assessment.
In another update from SMM, social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, dropped by some 13,000 tonnes from Thursday November 22 to stand at 1.411 million tonnes as of Monday November 26, Shanghai Metals Market data showed.
Compared to last Thursday, inventories in Wuxi and Jiangsu dropped by 8,000 tonnes to stand at 601,000 tonnes while that in Nanhai and Guangdong dropped by 11,000 tonnes to clock at 189,000 tonnes. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follow:

A00 aluminium ingot price stood at RMB 13,750 per tonne today, down RMB90 per tonne from RMB 13,840 per tonne on Friday November 23. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,730 per tonne and RMB 13,770 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 70 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne.

Aluminium ingot prices also registered a decline in all major China markets today. Aluminium ingot prices in East (Wu Xi) and East (Hang Zhou) are hovering at RMB 13735 per tonne and 13760 per tonne respectively. In the south and north, the prices plunged by RMB 70 per tonne and RMB 80 per tonne to stand at RMB 13830 per tonne and RMB 13740 per tonne.
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