Usage Procedure – How to use the CBAM Calculator Sheet

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The system will automatically calculate the payable
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Notes:
• Change any input value to automatically update CBAM cost.
• Formula used: Carbon price × payable emissions × quantity.
• Model aligned with CBAM supplier-side illustrative methodology.

22 JUNE 2026 AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium cash offer eases 0.06% amid prolonged West Asia disruptions threatening supply through 2027

EDITED BY : ARANYA MONDAL 4MINS READ

LME aluminium cash offer eases 0.06% to $3,400/t, but prolonged West Asia disruptions threaten supply through 2027

The image used in this article is generated with an AI tool and does not depict any real-time moment

The West Asia crisis is expected to leave a lasting mark on global aluminium supply, with production losses now forecast to persist into 2027. While LME aluminium prices posted modest declines on June 19, analysts say the market remains vulnerable to prolonged disruptions as damaged smelting capacity across the region takes longer than expected to recover.

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On June 19, the LME aluminium cash bid price stood at USD 3,399 per tonne, down 0.07 per cent from USD 3,401.5 per tonne on June 18. The cash offer price eased 0.06 per cent to USD 3,400 per tonne from USD 3,402 per tonne.

The LME aluminium 3-month bid price declined 0.07 per cent to USD 3,397.5 per tonne, while the 3-month offer price slipped 0.09 per cent to USD 3,398 per tonne. Further along the forward curve, December 2027 bid and offer prices fell 0.47 per cent to USD 3,175 per tonne and USD 3,180 per tonne respectively.

The LME aluminium 3-month Asian Reference Price was assessed at USD 3,396.5 per tonne.

LME aluminium inventories also moved lower. Opening stocks declined by 1,000 tonnes, or 0.32 per cent, to 315,525 tonnes on June 19 from 316,525 tonnes a day earlier. Live warrants edged down 0.01 per cent to 247,575 tonnes, while cancelled warrants fell 0.29 per cent to 67,725 tonnes. Meanwhile, the LME alumina Platts price remained unchanged at USD 307.1 per tonne.

West Asia outages to keep market tight

According to Goldman Sachs, aluminium prices are likely to remain supported in the near term as production losses in West Asia persist longer than previously expected. The bank said recent industry feedback and company announcements suggest a slower recovery in regional smelting operations, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the announced interim agreement.

The brokerage lowered its West Asia aluminium production estimates by 660,000 tonnes for 2026 and 1 million tonnes for 2027, assuming damaged capacity restarts only in early 2027 rather than the second half of 2026. It now expects Bahrain's output to return to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027 and the UAE's production to recover by the end of 2027.

As a result, Goldman Sachs now forecasts a global aluminium deficit of 720,000 tonnes in 2026, compared with its previous estimate of 570,000 tonnes. For 2027, it expects a surplus of 590,000 tonnes, significantly lower than the 1.3 million tonnes projected earlier.

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Indonesia and China to offset supply losses

While West Asia remains a source of supply risk, Goldman Sachs expects Indonesia and China to drive much of the global production growth over the next two years.

The bank raised its Indonesian primary aluminium production forecast to 1.7 million tonnes in 2026 and 2.9 million tonnes in 2027, citing faster ramp-ups at Adaro, Taijing Morowali and Juwan Weda Bay. Indonesian output is already up around 89 per cent year-on-year so far this year.

China's aluminium production forecast was also revised higher to 45.6 million tonnes in 2026 and 46.3 million tonnes in 2027 as strong margins support restarts and continued production above the country's nominal 45 million tonne capacity cap.

Reflecting the tighter near-term market, Goldman Sachs increased its Q3 2026 LME aluminium forecast to USD 3,300 per tonne from USD 3,200 per tonne and lifted its average 2027 forecast to USD 2,950 per tonne from USD 2,750 per tonne. However, the bank remains bearish relative to current forward prices of around USD 3,400 per tonne for Q3 2026 and USD 3,250 per tonne for 2027.

That said, the outlook remains highly dependent on the pace of recovery in West Asia. A slower restart could keep the market broadly balanced in 2027 and support prices near USD 3,250 per tonne, while a faster recovery could expand the surplus to around 1.2 million tonnes and push prices closer to USD 2,750 per tonne.