Jamaica projects 24% rise in bauxite and alumina export earnings despite weak Q1 output

Jamaica’s bauxite and alumina export earnings are expected to improve in 2026, even though the first quarter was weak. The government expects production to rise as repairs continue after Hurricane Melissa, and the aluminium industry is watching closely because bauxite is the raw material used to make alumina for aluminium smelting. 

According to the Jamaican Government's annual Form 18-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), export earnings from bauxite and alumina are projected to rise 24 per cent to USD 760 million in 2026 from USD 612.3 million in 2025. Even if achieved, earnings would remain below the USD 803.4 million recorded in 2024.

The recovery is coming after a tough 2025, when Jamaica’s bauxite and alumina earnings fell 23.8 per cent, or USD 191.1 million, mainly because alumina prices were lower and exports weakened. Alumina earnings dropped to USD 546.3 million, while the average price fell to USD 385.50 per tonne.  Exports also fell to around 1.42 million tonnes (a decline of 9 per cent).

To know the long-term bauxite market forecast, book our report: “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook”

Crude bauxite performed relatively better. Export earnings increased 18 per cent to USD 66 million, supported by higher prices (USD 38.20 per tonne, an increase of 16.7 per cent). Total bauxite production declined 4.4 per cent to about 5.62 million tonnes in 2025.

The industry remained under pressure during the first quarter of 2026. Alumina production fell 30.3 per cent to 267,060 tonnes, while crude bauxite production declined 26.4 per cent to 415,143 tonnes. Exports of both alumina (319,600 tonnes from 358,070 tonnes) and bauxite (down by 29.7 per cent to 384,276 tonnes) also decreased compared with the same period last year.

Despite the weak start, the government expects bauxite production to recover to around 6.4 million tonnes in 2026, an increase of nearly 14 per cent over 2025, as repair work at mining and processing facilities continues through the year.