The ongoing debate about the impact of the Trump administration's tariff increase from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on India's aluminium exports is generating considerable discussion. While various industry leaders offer different viewpoints, it is essential to understand India's current aluminium export relations with the United States. According to the data revealed by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's aluminium exports to the US were valued at US$946 million during 2023-24, following USD 1,097 million worth of exports in 2022-23.
Official trade data suggests India's aluminium export value to the US exceeded USD 1 billion for two consecutive years. In 2021-22, the value reached USD 1.1 billion, marking a sharp rise of 117.5 per cent Y-o-Y, compared to USD 507.34 million in 2020-21. As the observation goes, India's aluminium export value rose each year from just USD 350 million in 2016-17, when Trump began his first term of Presidentship.
Now, that brings us to the key question: How did India's aluminium export to the United States grow in value after 2016-17, when Donald Trump was the President and already levied a 10 per cent duty on Indian aluminium imports? The above data clearly suggests that the 10 per cent tariff was not enough to block aluminium imports from India, the world's second-largest aluminium producer after China.
If tariffs did not work then, will they be effective now?
This historic trend has thus sparked a debate on whether the new tariff will effectively curb imports or if the situation will revert to previous patterns. Some argue that the new 25 per cent tariffs are significantly broader than those imposed in 2018, covering a wider range of semi-finished and finished aluminium products, potentially capable of disrupting India's exports and affecting revenues. The increase in exports of such products propelled the Trump government to widen the tariff coverage. In 2024, aluminium conductor exports alone were valued at USD 130 million, while the previous year saw a peak of USD 261 million, up from just USD 40 million in 2021, according to the data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC). The main US markets for India's aluminium exports are California, Texas, Nevada and Arizona, where infrastructure spending and grid modernisation efforts have accelerated.
India's other aluminium product exports also saw increases in 2024, including unwrought aluminium shipments valued at USD 185 million, nails and fasteners valued at USD 107 million and wires at USD 98 million. In addition, India also accounted for 26 per cent of the United States' aluminium tube and pipe fitting imports in 2024, valued at USD 16 million.
Amid these growing export trends, the potential impacts of higher tariffs are inevitable. CareEdge Ratings has noted in its recent analysis, "The surge in tariff in the US is likely to have a relatively higher impact on export volumes and its realisations for Indian aluminium manufacturers than steel manufacturers."
Meanwhile, some hold a slightly different view, suggesting the impact will be limited, as India's aluminium exports to the US make up only 12% of the country's total exports. Might have the export values increased over the years due to the hightened aluminium prices, suggested a few. In the financial year ended March 31, 2024, India exported approximately 0.2 million tonnes to the US, accounting for 6 to 8 per cent of the former's direct exports to the latter. To the entire North America, India exported 0.4 million tonnes in 2023-24, which was about 5 per cent lower than 0.5 million tonnes of exports in 2022-23.
However, with a much higher tariff, the potential impacts of the United States tariffs on India's aluminium export volume and value cannot be overlooked. Moreover, even aluminium benchmark prices have a huge role to play in determining export value.
