Hindalco, NALCO, Tata Steel or Jindal: Who gains most from aluminium price rally?

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The sharp aluminium price rally, propelled by geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and resulting supply-side disruptions, has renewed investor interest in India’s metal sector. According to a report by PL Capital, elevated London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices, coupled with lower alumina costs, are expected to boost earnings for aluminium producers, placing companies such as Hindalco Industries and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) in the spotlight.

While aluminium prices have climbed to record highs, PL Capital noted that the global alumina market is still oversupplied. The weaker alumina price and stronger LME aluminium price ratio is likely to help Chinese aluminium smelters post healthy financial performance in calendar year 2026.

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Although additional exports from China could exert pressure on global markets, production growth is likely to remain constrained by the country’s aluminium capacity ceiling and bauxite availability.

The improved aluminium outlook has also supported broader metal stocks. During Thursday’s trading session, the Nifty Metal index advanced nearly 0.9 per cent in early trade, followed by extending gains to around 1.7 per cent. The index has risen past 7 per cent over the past month, delivering almost 29 per cent returns in the last six months.

Among the major gainers were Vedanta, NALCO, Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel, SAIL, NMDC, and JSW Steel.

Hindalco climbed nearly 1.8 per cent to INR 1,093.1 (USD 11.49), and NALCO added 1.2 per cent to INR 413.3 (USD 4.34). Meanwhile, Tata Steel shares gained around 0.7 per cent to INR 221.2 (USD 2.33), SAIL traded over 1 per cent higher at INR 204 (USD 0.02), and JSW Steel rose almost 1.3 per cent to INR 1,291 (USD 13.57).

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PL Capital maintains an ‘Overweight’ stance on the metal and mining sector, retaining its ‘Accumulate’ rating on Hindalco, Tata Steel, Jindal Stainless, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, NMDC, and SAIL.

The brokerage further reaffirmed its views on aluminium producers, stating, “We maintain our Accumulate/Hold rating on HNDL/NACL, respectively, and await a better entry point. Every USD 100 increase in LME upgrades our HNDL/NACL EBITDA by ~4/5 per cent, respectively.”

PL Capital believes sustained strength in aluminium prices could continue to improve earnings prospects for Indian aluminium producers, even as the industry monitors developments in global supply chains and China’s export dynamics.

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