Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite exporter, is considering measures to regulate production and exports in a bid to stabilise falling prices of the key aluminium raw material. The move comes as bauxite prices have nearly halved since early 2025, despite Guinea’s exports rising by over 25 per cent year-on-year to 183 million tonnes in 2024. 

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Policy aimed at curbing price decline

Bouna Sylla, Minister of Mines and Geology, stated that the government is engaging with mining companies to limit output in line with approved plans. Elaborating on the objective, he said, “This policy aims to regulate bauxite production to prevent price declines, thereby avoiding reductions in corporate revenues and government tax revenues.”

The government has instructed miners not to exceed production levels specified in their licences, noting that actual output in some cases has surpassed approved limits.

“This decision will take effect in the coming weeks and aims to align production and export volumes in 2026 with the levels outlined in the feasibility study report,” Sylla added.

He also clarified that the objective is not an outright ban, mentioning, “We are not looking to ban exports, but rather aim to regulate the production and export of bauxite.” 

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Supply dynamics, value addition and global implications

Guinea’s strategic move comes at the time of heightened uncertainty in the global aluminium market, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East already affecting around 9 per cent of global aluminium production capacity and subsequent trade dynamics.

However, the effectiveness of the policy in lifting prices remains uncertain, as alternative suppliers such as Australia and Brazil could offset any supply reduction.

Alongside export controls, Guinea is also seeking to strengthen its domestic processing capacity. The government recently revoked a mining licence held by a unit of Emirates Global Aluminium after the company failed to meet commitments to build an alumina refinery, transferring the asset to a state-owned entity.

Guinea’s stance follows similar resource control measures across Africa. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has suspended cobalt exports and introduced quotas, while Zimbabwe recently halted exports of lithium concentrates and ores.

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