GCC aluminium production outlook revised for Q2 2026 after April output shock

As the Middle East conflict continues with full force, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and 9 per cent of aluminium production and supply from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hangs by the thread of uncertainty. Compounded by the damages caused by the geopolitical unrest, GCC completes one-third of the April-June quarter (Q2) of 2026, with a staggering 26.87 per cent month-on-month production decline.

GCC April’26 rings warning bells

Aluminium production in the January-March quarter (Q1) of 2026 declined in the range of 540,000 to 570,000 tonnes or about 3.7 per cent, slipping from 1.55 million tonnes in the October-December quarter (Q4) in 2025 to 1.49 million tonnes in Q1 2026.