GCC aluminium production outlook revised for Q2 2026 after April output shock

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As the Middle East conflict continues with full force, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and 9 per cent of aluminium production and supply from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hangs by the thread of uncertainty. Compounded by the damages caused by the geopolitical unrest, GCC completes one-third of the April-June quarter (Q2) of 2026, with a staggering 26.87 per cent month-on-month production decline.

GCC April’26 rings warning bells

Aluminium production in the January-March quarter (Q1) of 2026 declined in the range of 540,000 to 570,000 tonnes or about 3.7 per cent, slipping from 1.55 million tonnes in the October-December quarter (Q4) in 2025 to 1.49 million tonnes in Q1 2026.

As the GCC stepped into Q2 2026, the April aluminium output saw a drastic dip, with the daily average falling to 10,989 tonnes per day in April 2026, a 26.87 per cent M-o-M decline from the March levels of 15,000 tonnes per day. The figure also depicts a 35.36 per cent drop from the pre-conflict daily output volumes of approximately 17,000 tonnes. 

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As April’s monthly average production comes to 330,000 tonnes, the volume draws a grim contrast year-on-year, when the daily output averaged at 16,800 tonnes, and the monthly production totalled 505,000 tonnes, thereby indicating a sharp drop of 34.65 per cent.

The first four months of 2026 yielded a production of 1.76 million tonnes of aluminium by the GCC. Comparing the same period Y-o-Y, production has once again hit a slump, down by 13.02 per cent from 2.03 million tonnes produced between January and April 2025.  

Jonathan Grant, Secretary General at the International Aluminium Association, noted, "What we are seeing in April's numbers is probably not the floor, it is a further deterioration that brings Gulf output to levels not seen in over a decade.” 

Factors driving the decline and its repercussions