Did US tariffs cut America's reliance on Canadian aluminium? The numbers tell a different story
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Washington's tariff strategy aimed to revive domestic aluminium production and reduce reliance on Canadian imports. A year later, the numbers tell a more nuanced story — one where prices moved faster than production, diversification outpaced displacement, and one of the world's most integrated aluminium supply chains proved far more resilient than expected.
More than 2.9 million tonnes of aluminium left Canadian ports for global markets in 2025. Of that, roughly 2.3 million tonnes were shipped to the United States, more than the combined exports of the next nine supplying countries. That is the relationship Washington set out to change.
When the US raised Section 232 tariffs on aluminium imports from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, the objective was to make imported aluminium less competitive, stimulate domestic smelting, and gradually reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Given Canada's dominance in the US import market, any meaningful change in America's aluminium supply chain would inevitably begin there.
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