China's August aluminium extrusion exports hit a YTD high; pullback expected in September amid narrowing price spread

According to customs data, China’s aluminium extrusion exports totalled 92,500 tonnes in August 2026, the highest monthly export volume of the year, up 3.0 per cent M-o-M, an increase of 2,700 tonnes from 89,800 tonnes in July. This was up 9.7 per cent Y-o-Y from 84,300 tonnes in August 2025. From January to August, China’s cumulative aluminium extrusion exports reached 629,600 tonnes, up 8.7 per cent Y-o-Y.

By province, the M-o-M growth in August mainly came from traditional production areas. Guangdong exported 42,400 tonnes, accounting for 45.8 per cent, up 4,100 tonnes M-o-M, with the province’s growth alone exceeding the national net increase, making it the core engine of the month’s rebound.

Shandong served as ballast, holding above 12,000 tonnes for three consecutive months. Hainan showed the strongest trend, staying above 2,900 tonnes for three consecutive months, as the province continued its positive export momentum following the independent customs operations of the free trade port. In addition, Inner Mongolia was up 1,800 tonnes Y-o-Y, Shaanxi up 1,300 tonnes Y-o-Y, and Sichuan up 1,100 tonnes Y-o-Y, as marginal export growth from emerging production areas in central and western China continued to accumulate, extending the spread of China’s aluminium extrusion exports to inland regions.

By destination, regional divergence was stark. Southeast Asia remained firmly in first place at 26,500 tonnes, or 28.6 per cent, up 10.9 per cent M-o-M and up 8.6 per cent Y-o-Y, making it the only region with both the largest volume and double-digit growth. Africa posted 18,800 tonnes, still up 13.9 per cent Y-o-Y, but pulled back 6.0 per cent M-o-M, with the pullback driven mainly by monthly fluctuations in orders from Nigeria alone; that country exported 7,700 tonnes in July, falling to 4,200 tonnes in August.

Latin America recorded 14,400 tonnes, rebounding 23.1 per cent M-o-M but still down 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y. Southeast Asia and Latin America together added a net 5,300 tonnes, which was offset by a net decline of 1,200 tonnes in Africa and contraction in the long tail, leaving global exports up only 3.0 per cent M-o-M.

Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam exported 6,700 tonnes in August, below Malaysia’s 7,900 tonnes, as the substitution effect of Vietnam’s local extrusions became evident. The highly dispersed pattern of export destinations continued, with the top 15 countries accounting for only 59.9 per cent. In September, Mexico imposed final anti-dumping duties on Chinese extrusions, covering aluminium bar and rod products under TIGIE codes 7604.10.02, 7604.10.99, 7604.29.01, 7604.29.02, and 7604.29.99, at USD 1.58 per kg.

For hollow extrusions from China under TIGIE code 7604.21.01, it levied an anti-dumping duty of USD 1.93 per kg; these products are used mainly in building curtain walls, industrial frames, and transportation infrastructure, and are core products in high-end aluminium deep processing. Since Mexico issued an affirmative preliminary determination and imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium extrusions in December 2025, China’s aluminium extrusion exports to Mexico have shown a month-by-month downtrend this year.

The final determination is expected to further reduce export volumes to Mexico, but given the absolute volume of only 1,100 tonnes, or 1.2 per cent, the overall impact is limited.

By trade mode, China’s aluminium extrusion exports via Ordinary Trade in August were approximately 80,700 tonnes, accounting for 87.3 per cent, down 2.8 percentage points from 90.1 per cent in July; exports via processing trade with supplied materials were approximately 5,700 tonnes, accounting for 6.2 per cent, up 2.4 percentage points from 3.8 per cent in July; exports via processing trade with imported materials were approximately 5,100 tonnes, accounting for 5.5 per cent, up 0.1 percentage point from July.

Ordinary Trade mainly involves independently taking orders, while the rebound in processing trade with supplied materials more reflects replenishment of orders in the processing segment. The shift between the two indicates that price-driven market-based order-taking has recently shown marginal weakening momentum.

August aluminium extrusion exports reached 92,500 tonnes, up 3.0 per cent M-o-M and up 9.7 per cent Y-o-Y, hitting a new high for the year in a single month. By province, the driving force re-concentrated in traditional major producing regions: Guangdong alone increased by 4,100 tonnes M-o-M, while the rest of the provinces combined posted a net decline. The only trend-worthy growth came from emerging producing regions such as Hainan, where exports have stayed above 2,900 tonnes for three consecutive months, but the volume is not enough to offset fluctuations in major producing regions.

By destination, regional divergence was pronounced: Southeast Asia remained the largest export region with 26,500 tonnes and a 28.6 per cent share, up 10.9 per cent M-o-M, making it the primary source of export growth. Africa still rose 13.9 per cent Y-o-Y but pulled back 6.0 per cent M-o-M, mainly dragged down by a sharp drop in single-month orders from Nigeria, representing a monthly disturbance rather than a trend reversal.

Latin America rebounded 23.1 per cent M-o-M but still fell 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y under the impact of anti-dumping duties in Mexico. By trade mode, the share of Ordinary Trade fell back to 87.3 per cent, while processing trade with supplied materials expanded, indicating marginal weakening in price-driven momentum for independent order-taking. Overall, aluminium extrusion exports totalled 629,600 tonnes in January-August, up 8.7 per cent Y-o-Y cumulatively, with June-August maintaining a high-level sideways pattern.

Affected by the continued narrowing of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, September aluminium extrusion exports are expected to pull back weakly to 85,000-92,000 tonnes. In Q4, under the impact of the continued contraction in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and the ongoing release of local capacity in Southeast Asia, monthly exports are expected to run in the 75,000-89,000 tonnes range, with the midpoint lower than Q3. Full-year 2026 aluminium extrusion exports are expected to land in the 950,000-990,000 tonnes range.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.