China's alumina imports surge as growing supply surplus keeps prices under pressure

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China's alumina imports continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2026, but expanding domestic production and rising inventories have created a supply surplus that is expected to keep alumina prices volatile and largely range-bound in the near term, according to SunSirs.

China imported 2.277 million metric tonnes of alumina between January and June 2026, a 749.1 per cent increase year-on-year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. During the same period, alumina exports reached 1.609 million metric tonnes, up 19.8 per cent, leaving cumulative net imports at 668,000 metric tonnes as the country's reliance on imported alumina continued to grow.

On August 4, the most-traded alumina futures contract was quoted at RMB 2,644 per metric tonne, up 0.38 per cent during the session, although analysts expect prices to remain within a narrow trading range in the short term.

Rising imports add to China's growing alumina surplus

While alumina imports have accelerated, domestic production has also continued to expand, resulting in an increasingly well-supplied market.

SunSirs said total alumina inventories have increased by more than one million metric tonnes since the beginning of the year as primary aluminium smelters maintain comfortable raw material stockpiles and imported cargoes continue to lift port inventories. Exchange warehouse receipts have also remained well above long-term averages, reducing support for spot prices.

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New alumina production capacity in Guangxi is continuing to come online, while previously idled refineries are gradually resuming operations, further strengthening domestic supply.

According to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), weekly alumina production remained broadly stable, but ample supply continues to weigh on prices as inventories keep building. SMM added that, in the absence of stronger macroeconomic support in China, the current oversupply is likely to keep alumina prices subdued in the near term.

Overseas supply shifts reshape alumina trade flows

The alumina market has also been influenced by changes in overseas supply.

SMM noted that earlier shipments of lower-priced alumina into China reduced inventories outside the country. More recently, however, restocking demand from new aluminium capacity in Indonesia, together with production resumptions in the Middle East, has tightened ex-China alumina availability and pushed overseas alumina prices higher.

SunSirs also highlighted the resumption of operations at the Atavira alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates during July, which is expected to improve future global alumina supply and contribute additional pressure on prices.

Despite these developments, China's spot alumina market has remained relatively stable, with prices fluctuating close to production costs. SunSirs expects the main alumina futures contract to trade within a reference range of RMB 2,650 to RMB 2,800 per metric tonne in the near term.

Bauxite continues to provide cost support

Although alumina supply remains abundant, the upstream bauxite market is offering some support to prices.

SunSirs said Guinea continues to maintain strong bauxite shipments to China, helping ensure adequate raw material availability for domestic refineries. At the same time, Guinea's export quota policy has made bauxite prices more likely to rise than fall, strengthening production cost support for alumina.

Combined with steady global bauxite availability and recovering alumina production outside China, these factors are expected to limit further downside in alumina prices, even as oversupply continues to weigh on the market.

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