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29 NOVEMBER 2016 AL CIRCLE

A strong dollar to weigh on LME Aluminium, money supply tightens in China

EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

LME aluminium after diving overnight on Monday moved above the 10 and 20-day moving averages to close at US$1,766.50/mt. The price fall was in tandem with other base metal futures traded on the exchange. The US long-term government treasury rate increased over market expectations of a possible Fed rate hike later this year. As a result, dollar index rose forcing capital out of the emerging markets. The strengthening dollar, in turn, put downward pressure on the base metal prices thereby reining in their bull run.

As per SMM forecast, LME aluminium will move between US$1,730-1,760/mt on Tuesday, November 29. The 3-month buyer price of aluminium as on November 28, stands at US$1,768/mt. The LME official opening stock is estimated at 2131750mt.

News
The People’s Bank of China raised capital cost; monetary policy in and outside China is expected to tighten. SMM thinks, investors should be wary of risks after overbought of base metals.

Aluminium traded on Shanghai Metal Exchange closed at US$2,121/mt on Monday, and opened at US$2,077/mt on Tuesday, November 29. Aluminium futures traded on Shanghai  Futures Exchange, SHFE 1702 aluminum is predicted to test support at the 20-day moving average and will range at US$1,959.11-2,002.64/mt, predicts SMM.

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Following graph shows the price movement of aluminium A00 ingot as surveyed by SMM:

News
“Most base metals fell back in overnight trading, and in the short run, investors should pay attention to money supply, which serves as a major driving factor, in addition to a strong dollar,” SMM says. 


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EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

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