WEEKLY: China alumina prices seen easing on fresh supply, south-north flows

The image used in this article is generated with an AI tool and does not depict any real-time moment

From June 29 to July 3, 2026, domestic spot alumina prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with moderate trading activity in the market. As of July 3, the weighted national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at RMB 2,776 per tonne, down RMB 5 per tonne from a week earlier, according to Mysteel's price assessment.

On the supply side, domestic operating capacity for alumina was approximately 96.2 million tonnes per year. Recently, one of the boilers at a large alumina refinery in Guangxi resumed operation, and its capacity is expected to increase to around 3 million tonnes per year in the short term, with the remaining production line scheduled to be restored by the end of July.

On July 1, an alumina plant in Guizhou conducted equipment maintenance, during which the calciner was shut down for approximately five days, affecting an annual capacity of about 900,000 tonnes. In addition, two newly commissioned alumina plants in Beihai and Fangchenggang, Guangxi, have both approached full production, while the commissioning schedule for another new project in Beihai has been delayed.

As of July 2, 2026, the national alumina capacity utilisation rate stood at 78.16 per cent, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. According to Mysteel's survey, restarts and maintenance coexisted in South China last week, but the overall trend of supply growth remained unchanged, with active cross-regional flows such as south-to-north shipments continuing. No news of production cuts or maintenance has been heard in the north so far.

Unlock key insights from leading companies and experts across the aluminium ecosystem with our e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026

On the demand side, traders' inventory of alumina in China totalled 6.306 million tonnes last week, up 46,000 tonnes from the prior week. The progress of new commissioning and restarts at alumina plants in Guangxi has accelerated. Supply-demand mismatches and the north-south price spread have opened an arbitrage window for south-to-north shipments, leading to a notable increase in port deliveries and goods-in-transit inventories.

In addition, as futures prices began to pull back and spot quotations edged lower, overall spot trading was inactive; however, some downstream aluminium smelters showed increased willingness to inquire and procure.

Last week, raw material inventories at aluminium plants increased. According to Mysteel's statistics, domestic aluminium enterprises consumed approximately 1.67 million tonnes of alumina last week, up 1,700 tonnes from the previous week. With domestic aluminium capacity recently standing at around 45.26 million tonnes per year, the market was dominated by long-term contract execution, while a few smelters maintained routine tenders and procurement based on rigid demand.

Looking at this week, alumina futures prices have continued to decline, prompting traders to increase their willingness to sell, with transactions showing slight discounts. Most buyers remain highly cautious, and some aluminium smelters have been replenishing stocks appropriately based on their own inventory levels. Alumina producers have shown low enthusiasm for spot trading, quoting relatively cautiously.

In addition, the accelerated pace of new commissioning and restarts has led to incremental supply recently. Along with the growing volume of south-to-north shipments, the momentum for sustained price increases in the north is weakening. The previously tight supply-demand balance is also gradually relaxing. It is expected that alumina prices will fluctuate with a downward bias this week, with a price range of RMB 2,700–2,800 per tonne.

Explore- Most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report — Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel