Mysteel
China bauxite shipments, arrivals slip on high freight and Guinea rains; term supply, port stocks stay high
Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable with no fluctuations. In Henan Province, mine renovation is nearly complete, and ground preparation work ahead of commencement will be carried out this week. Meanwhile, supplies of some domestic ore will be auctioned, though winning bid prices have not yet been announced. According to Mysteel's research, a few ores with an alumina content exceeding 70 per cent fetched winning bids of over RMB 1,000 per tonne. In terms of imported ore, persistently high ocean freight rates continue to squeeze spot shipments from Guinea, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market over the past week. Mines and traders have rarely offered cargoes, and quoted prices show a slight upward trend. According to Mysteel's research, a medium-sized mine in the Boffa...
China alumina spot prices steady as production cut hopes offset weak fundamentals
The SHFE alumina futures prices have shown a volatile trend recently. Although fundamentals have dragged spot prices weaker, as industry-wide losses widen, market expectations of production cuts keep rising. Therefore, after the basis narrowed back, futures prices found bottom support, and traders took a cautious wait-and-see stance. On supply side, recent domestic alumina operating capacity was about 99.1 million tonnes per year. A large new alumina project in Guangxi started trial production on its first production line last Sunday, involving capacity of about 1 million tonne per year; after product quality stabilises, it will advance the second 1-million-tonne line. A northern alumina refinery, under heavy loss pressure, has gradually halted front-end feeding and aluminium hydroxide...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ALUMINIUM Arabia 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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China's alumina sector sinks deeper into losses as costs stay sticky and output rebounds
According to Mysteel's data, China's weighted average full cost of alumina production stood at RMB 2,864.65 per tonne as of the end of August 2026, up about RMB 38.44 per tonne from the previous month. Currently, roughly half of the industry's capacity is running at a loss on a full-cost basis, and some producers have even begun posting cash-flow losses. With no signs of easing on the cost side and alumina prices continuing to slide, the sector's pressure shows no sign of relief. Looking back on August, the bauxite prices held steady. Bottlenecks in incremental domestic mine supply persisted, and the supply-demand picture remained largely unchanged. Beyond routine long-term contracts, alumina refineries struggled to secure spot volumes and could only supplement with imported ore. On the...
China prebaked anode margins squeezed deeper as petcoke and pitch surge outrun tender hike
Driven by higher input costs within the settlement cycle, China's prebaked anode market moved up again. Shandong's large-sized smelters raised their September 2026 prebaked anode tender benchmark by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 5,730 per tonne by cash and RMB 5,745 per tonne on acceptance bills. On costs, using cash prices in Shandong as the basis, production cost for prebaked anodes in this settlement round came to about RMB 5,821.19 per tonne. That leaves the industry's average margin around RMB -91.19 per tonne. Although the tender price was bumped up, the increase lagged both market expectations and the faster rise in raw-material costs, pushing most producers back below the break-even line. Feedstock mix was little changed month on month. Petroleum coke (petcoke) accounted for 71.2 per...
China aluminium sheet, strip and foil defy off-season lull; "golden September" rally in sight
China's aluminium sheet, strip and foil sector posted a stronger-than-expected off-season performance in August 2026, based on Mysteel's data. Specially, the weekly output eased modestly from July peaks but held steady near 390,000 tonnes, with operating rates hovering around 70 per cent. Orders stimulated by July's lower prices continued to be delivered through August, driving a drawdown in finished goods inventories followed by stabilisation -- a "not-so-quiet off-season" scenario. As the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak consumption season approaches, and with traders' inventories of primary aluminium having fallen to a low of 790,000 tonnes, downstream offtake demand is expected to release gradually. Operating rates and output in the sheet, strip and foil sector are...
WEEKLY: Guinea shipments surge but freight costs keep China bauxite spot split, prices pinned in tight band
China's domestic ore prices held steady last week. In Shanxi, a limited volume of relatively lower-grade domestic ore was concluded under long-term contracts at approximately RMB 530 per tonne. In Henan, the expected increase in domestic ore output has yet to materialise, leaving the supply-demand balance broadly tight. Mysteel expects limited price volatility in the near term. On the import side, Guinean 45/3 standard-grade ore prices showed a slight upward bias last week. However, driven by elevated bunker fuel costs inflating ocean freight and a widening spread between alumina prices in northern and southern China, spot transaction levels diverged notably across regions. According to Mysteel, southern alumina smelters sourced Guinean standard-grade cargoes at below USD 71 per tonne...
WEEKLY: China alumina extends losses on capacity overhang, even as basis trade lifts physical offtake
China's domestic spot alumina prices continued their gradual downward trend last week, with sporadic discounted transactions emerging in the market, based on Mysteel's survey. The pressure was partly contributed by the persistent expectation of fresh supply coming online in southern China, leaving cargo holders broadly bearish. On top of that, concerns that deepening industry losses could eventually force voluntary curtailments, together with overseas production headlines and softness in seaborne deal levels, prompted a wave of short-covering that lifted alumina futures on thinning open interest. The underlying physical picture, however, stayed soft, and the September commissioning pipeline in the south has not gone away. As the basis widened, basis traders have been picking up more...
WEEKLY: Aluminium rallies as soft US jobs data, tight ingot supply set up bullish tug-of-war
Overnight overseas macro sentiment turned constructive, driving synchronised gains across domestic and overseas aluminium prices. The softer US August ADP private payrolls data further dampened market expectations of Fed rate hikes, easing the dollar's drag on commodities. Coupled with heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions lifting the risk premium across the commodity complex, multiple tailwinds converged to propel aluminium higher. As of the 10:15 close on September 3, the SHFE aluminium front-month contract settled at RMB 24,345 per tonne, up 1.18 per cent on the day; LME three-month aluminium finished at RMB 3,303.5 per tonne, edging up 0.27 per cent, both onshore and offshore markets trading in firm tandem. Beneath the price rebound, the domestic aluminium fundamental backdrop...
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