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Mysteel

China cast aluminium alloy on rollercoaster in 1H26 as tax policy tightens, scrap shortage bites
Downstream
In the first half of 2026, China's domestic cast aluminium alloy prices initially surged and created a multi-year high before pulling back. By end-June, the spot prices in East China stood at RMB 23,200 per tonne, up 18.37 per cent year-on-year, having hit a record high of RMB 24,700 per tonne during the period. The price rally was driven by three main factors. First, overseas geopolitical tensions pushed up global aluminium prices, lifting domestic A00 prices and alloy prices in tandem. Sec ...
China aluminium market likely to shift from surplus to deficit through 2H26
Primary AL
When SHFE aluminium traded in a wide range with the average price in the first half of 2026 edging higher year-on-year, the market performance was weaker relative to LME. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium supply rose 3 per cent year-on-year, while weak domestic demand was partially offset by a 7.4 per cent increase in aluminium extrusions exports, resulting in a surplus of approximately 514,000 tonnes for the first half. Looking ahead to the second half, demand is expected to recover as ...

Alumina
In the first half of 2026, China's domestic alumina production rose 5.6 per cent Y-o-Y to 45.9 million tonnes, with capacity up 8.2 per cent to 120.95 million tonnes per year. June saw a 258,000 supply deficit in the southwest, covered by northern shipments. In the second half, supply tightness is expected to ease as capacity in Guangxi ramps up and southern-to-northern flows continue. Demand from aluminium smelters is set to stay stable. Therefore, the alumina prices are expected to trend lo ...
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