Mysteel
WEEKLY: Bauxite prices capped by high refinery stocks
During China's National Day holiday (October 2-8, 2026), domestic bauxite supply showed no major swings, with persistent bottlenecks continuing to cap output. Routine environmental inspections across several inland regions kept weighing on domestic ore production. Offsetting this tightness, however, alumina refineries are holding inventories at elevated levels, while relatively ample imported ore volumes are capping domestic bauxite prices. Mysteel anticipates that domestic ore prices will struggle to register any meaningful upside in the near term. In the imported ore segment, a large Guinean miner quoted relatively high ahead of the holiday, which met with limited acceptance from alumina refineries. Only a small number of refineries confirmed term deals and took deliveries, resulting in...
China aluminium spot prices extend decline on persistent oversupply, holiday lull
China's domestic aluminium spot prices edged lower last week, with trading sentiment remaining relatively subdued during the National Day holiday period. On supply side, China's domestic aluminium operating capacity currently stands at approximately 99.9 million tonnes per year. A coastal aluminium refinery in Guangxi commenced calciner maintenance around October 4, expected to last about one month, affecting capacity of roughly 1 million tonnes per year. However, newly commissioned and restarted capacity from earlier periods has gradually translated into stable incremental supply. Coupled with expectations of further new capacity releases in the fourth quarter, the impact of sporadic routine maintenance on market sentiment remains limited. Two new projects, one coastal and one inland in...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
India Mining Week 2026
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
India Mining Week 2026
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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WEEKLY: Bauxite stays flat as shipping costs jump; China ports pile up stock, demand stays soft
Last week, domestic ore prices remained generally stable. The supply side of domestic ore showed a continuous tightening trend, driving some traders and alumina refineries to purchase Turkish ore for blending purposes. Factories in Shanxi and Henan regions hope to further increase the usage of imported ore to ensure production. Mysteel expects domestic ore prices to have a slight upside room in the short term. Regarding imported ore, according to Mysteel’s research, a large mine in Guinea significantly raised its October quotation. With FOB prices remaining stable, ocean freight increased by US USD 3.5 per tonne to US USD 36 per tonne. Combined with oil price adjustments, the CIF price to major northern Chinese ports may exceed US USD 78 per dry tonne. Currently, refineries have shown...
China bauxite shipments, arrivals slip on high freight and Guinea rains; term supply, port stocks stay high
Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable with no fluctuations. In Henan Province, mine renovation is nearly complete, and ground preparation work ahead of commencement will be carried out this week. Meanwhile, supplies of some domestic ore will be auctioned, though winning bid prices have not yet been announced. According to Mysteel's research, a few ores with an alumina content exceeding 70 per cent fetched winning bids of over RMB 1,000 per tonne. In terms of imported ore, persistently high ocean freight rates continue to squeeze spot shipments from Guinea, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market over the past week. Mines and traders have rarely offered cargoes, and quoted prices show a slight upward trend. According to Mysteel's research, a medium-sized mine in the Boffa...
China alumina spot prices steady as production cut hopes offset weak fundamentals
The SHFE alumina futures prices have shown a volatile trend recently. Although fundamentals have dragged spot prices weaker, as industry-wide losses widen, market expectations of production cuts keep rising. Therefore, after the basis narrowed back, futures prices found bottom support, and traders took a cautious wait-and-see stance. On supply side, recent domestic alumina operating capacity was about 99.1 million tonnes per year. A large new alumina project in Guangxi started trial production on its first production line last Sunday, involving capacity of about 1 million tonne per year; after product quality stabilises, it will advance the second 1-million-tonne line. A northern alumina refinery, under heavy loss pressure, has gradually halted front-end feeding and aluminium hydroxide...
China's alumina sector sinks deeper into losses as costs stay sticky and output rebounds
According to Mysteel's data, China's weighted average full cost of alumina production stood at RMB 2,864.65 per tonne as of the end of August 2026, up about RMB 38.44 per tonne from the previous month. Currently, roughly half of the industry's capacity is running at a loss on a full-cost basis, and some producers have even begun posting cash-flow losses. With no signs of easing on the cost side and alumina prices continuing to slide, the sector's pressure shows no sign of relief. Looking back on August, the bauxite prices held steady. Bottlenecks in incremental domestic mine supply persisted, and the supply-demand picture remained largely unchanged. Beyond routine long-term contracts, alumina refineries struggled to secure spot volumes and could only supplement with imported ore. On the...
China prebaked anode margins squeezed deeper as petcoke and pitch surge outrun tender hike
Driven by higher input costs within the settlement cycle, China's prebaked anode market moved up again. Shandong's large-sized smelters raised their September 2026 prebaked anode tender benchmark by RMB 100 per tonne to RMB 5,730 per tonne by cash and RMB 5,745 per tonne on acceptance bills. On costs, using cash prices in Shandong as the basis, production cost for prebaked anodes in this settlement round came to about RMB 5,821.19 per tonne. That leaves the industry's average margin around RMB -91.19 per tonne. Although the tender price was bumped up, the increase lagged both market expectations and the faster rise in raw-material costs, pushing most producers back below the break-even line. Feedstock mix was little changed month on month. Petroleum coke (petcoke) accounted for 71.2 per...
China aluminium sheet, strip and foil defy off-season lull; "golden September" rally in sight
China's aluminium sheet, strip and foil sector posted a stronger-than-expected off-season performance in August 2026, based on Mysteel's data. Specially, the weekly output eased modestly from July peaks but held steady near 390,000 tonnes, with operating rates hovering around 70 per cent. Orders stimulated by July's lower prices continued to be delivered through August, driving a drawdown in finished goods inventories followed by stabilisation -- a "not-so-quiet off-season" scenario. As the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak consumption season approaches, and with traders' inventories of primary aluminium having fallen to a low of 790,000 tonnes, downstream offtake demand is expected to release gradually. Operating rates and output in the sheet, strip and foil sector are...
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