Futures: Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminium alloy ad2606 contract closed at RMB 23,585 per tonne, down RMB 40  from the previous trading day's close, or 0.17 per cent. The night session formed a small bearish candlestick, with an extremely narrow body and short upper and lower shadows, a typical high-level sideways candlestick pattern with no clear directional guidance. The current VR value was 89.74, in the strong range of 80-150, indicating that overall market activity remained in place, but had pulled back sharply from the previous overbought zone above 200. Trading volume diverged from prices, and upward momentum was insufficient.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on April 3, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the 10:15 closing price of the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2606) was RMB 950 per tonne.

Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on April 3, the total registered volume of cast aluminium alloy warrants was 31,636 tonnes, down 1,087 tonnes from the previous trading day. Of this, Shanghai totalled 1,942 tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day; Guangdong totalled 12,479 tonne, down 1,087 tonne; Jiangsu totalled 3,632 tonne, up 301 tonne; Zhejiang totalled 8,743 tonne, down 301 tonne; Chongqing totalled 3,634 tonne, unchanged; and Sichuan totalled 1,206 tonne, unchanged.

Aluminium scrap: Last Friday, spot primary aluminium fell RMB 120 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market generally followed lower and corrected. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, on April 3, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 3,155 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tensile scrap was RMB 1,865 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market is expected to maintain its pace of consolidation at highs this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) hovering at RMB 19,800-20,500 per tonne (ex-tax).

 In the short term, close attention still needs to be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on primary aluminium price fluctuations, the actual recovery of end-user orders, and the actual implementation progress of supply-side policies, with vigilance against the risk of wild swings in prices.

Silicon metal: On April 3, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was unchanged from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was unchanged; #521 was unchanged; #441 was unchanged; #421 was unchanged; #421 for silicone use was unchanged; and #3303 was unchanged. Silicon prices in Kunming, Tianjin, the northwest, Sichuan, Shanghai, Xinjiang, and Huangpu Port were stable.

Summary: Spot side, the ADC12 market continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the widening decline in aluminium prices, market sentiment turned cautious, and most enterprises lowered their offers; a few held prices steady and stayed on the sidelines with support from costs. 

Ahead of the Qingming Festival, downstream stocking demand fell short of expectations, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and transaction performance showed no obvious improvement. Coupled with market expectations of weakening demand in April, ADC12 prices still faced some downward pressure in the short term, and the market remained in the doldrums.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.