Under the dual pressure of North American capacity recovery and a widening SHFE/LME price ratio, July aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports peaked and pulled back

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According to customs data, China's exports of aluminium plate/sheet and strip (including aluminium plates, sheets, strips, and aluminium-plastic composite panels) reached 321,900 tonnes in July 2026. On a M-o-M basis, July exports fell 9.1 per cent from June's 354,000 tonnes, a decrease of about 32,100 tonnes, ending three consecutive months of growth. Exports rose 24 per cent YoY in July, and cumulative exports for January-July 2026 totalled 2.1113 million tonnes, up 19.5 per cent YoY.

By product structure, aluminium alloy sheet dominated July's aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports. Among them, rectangular aluminium alloy sheet with thickness of 0.2-0.28mm (mainly can stock) had exports of 139,100 tonnes, accounting for 43.2 per cent of total July exports, but down 9.5 per cent M-o-M (June: 153,700 tonnes), a decrease of about 14,600 tonnes.

Cumulative exports of this category for January-July reached 916,400 tonnes, contributing 43.4 per cent of total exports, remaining the core product. The second-largest was other rectangular aluminium alloy sheet with thickness of 0.35mm-4mm, with July exports of 62,500 tonnes, down 10.7 per cent M-o-M, and cumulative January-July exports of 424,200 tonnes.

The third was other non-alloy rectangular aluminium sheet (thickness >0.2mm), with July exports of 32,600 tonnes, edging down only 1.5 per cent M-o-M, showing relative resilience. Rectangular aluminium alloy sheet with thickness >4mm saw the largest decline, with July exports of 27,800 tonnes, down 17.4 per cent M-o-M, reflecting higher price sensitivity for thick plate demand and greater impact on thick plate exports from narrowing arbitrage after SHFE/LME price ratio recovery. Overall, the across-the-board pullback across all categories confirms the judgment that export demand has entered a contraction channel.

By country, Mexico ranked first with 34,900 tonnes in July, but down 22.8 per cent M-o-M (June: 45,300 tonnes), accounting for 10.8 per cent of total monthly exports. Cumulative exports to Mexico for January-July reached 257,400 tonnes, firmly the top destination. The US ranked fifth, with July exports of only 16,200 tonnes, plunging 37.8 per cent M-o-M (June: 26,100 tonnes), and cumulative exports to the US for January-July totalled 200,300 tonnes.

The sustained sharp pullback in exports to the US is directly due to the full resumption of production in July at a major North American plant's production line, which pulled back all can stock and automotive sheet orders previously diverted to China enterprises due to a fire. Only about 2,000 tonnes of residual volumes remained in August.

Exports to the US will gradually pull back to the low level of 3,000-5,000 tonnes under the new tariff regime in H2. Southeast Asia showed strong resilience: Vietnam (25,000 tonnes, -3.8 per cent), Thailand (17,300 tonnes, +0.3 per cent), and Indonesia (12,100 tonnes, +3.8 per cent) combined for exports of 54,400 tonnes, accounting for 16.9 per cent of the month's total.

As a traditional core market for aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports, Southeast Asia's demand remained stable. Among emerging markets, Nigeria (10,300 tonnes, +16.9 per cent), Turkey (9,500 tonnes, +12.8 per cent), and Kazakhstan (5,400 tonnes, +180.0 per cent) saw significant M-o-M growth.

Previously, the SHFE/LME price ratio was in a range favourable for exports, driving sustained volume growth in Q2. However, from end-July to early August, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened significantly, compressing export profit margins substantially.

Against this backdrop, for Chinese aluminium smelters to maintain export competitiveness, they need to raise processing fees to offset losses from the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, but raising processing fees will further dampen overseas clients' willingness to place orders—this contradiction has already emerged first in the thick plate category.

Looking ahead to H2, exports to the US will pull back to low levels, the widening SHFE/LME price ratio will continue to suppress new orders, and exports are expected to further pull back starting from August, with average monthly exports in H2 falling within the 260,000-30,000 tonnes range.

Combining the solid base of 2.11 million tonnes in January-July, with a neutral estimate for the remaining months of 2026 (average monthly of 70,000 tonnes, about 1.35 million tonnes over five months), total annual exports are still expected to reach 3.4-3.5 million tonnes, which would be higher than 3.07 million tonnes in 2025 and could also surpass the 3.43 million tonnes level in 2024, but the Q2 export boom will be difficult to replicate in H2.