The disturbance from expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, coupled with the continuous destocking of China's social inventory, leads to aluminium prices maintaining a short-term consolidation pattern

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Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,455 per tonne during the night session on July 29, hit a high of RMB 23,510 per tonne, a low of RMB 23,420 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 23,480 per tonne, up 0.11 per cent from the previous close.

During this session, the price consolidated at highs and closed as a small bullish candlestick, remaining firmly above the MA5 (23,415.45), MA10 (23,341.50), MA20 (23,269.66), MA40 (23,257.06), and MA60 (23,347.40) moving average system, with the moving averages providing support and the stage low support being effective, keeping the price centre high.

Trading volume shrank significantly during this session, while open interest edged down, showing characteristics of bearish position reduction and a lack of follow-through from incremental bullish funds. Technically, the 4-hour MACD indicator showed DIFF (67.45) running above DEA (39.33), with the red histogram continuing to expand, indicating that the bullish structure remains intact. In the short term, consolidation at highs is digesting the resistance around the 23,535 level.

On July 29, LME aluminium opened at USD 3,150 per tonne, with a high of USD 3,187.5 per tonne, a low of USD 3,143 per tonne, and finally closed at USD 3,176.5 per tonne, up 0.89 per cent from the previous close. During the day, the price consolidated at lows and rebounded to close as a bullish candlestick.

The price stood above the short-term moving averages MA5 (3,168.56) and MA10 (3,167.64) and tested the resistance of MA20 (3,181.40), while the medium and long-term moving averages MA40 and MA60 still remained above the price, indicating that the overall bearish structure had not changed yet.

During the day, volume pulled back slightly while open interest edged up, showing characteristics of bullish position building and a recovery in market sentiment. Technically, the daily MACD indicator showed DIFF (-36.03) running above DEA (-51.19), with the red histogram moving steadily, and the recovery trend at lows continued. However, the short-term rebound was capped by medium and long-term moving averages, limiting the upside room.

Macro front: The US Fed announced on Wednesday that it kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50 per cent-3.75 per cent for the fifth consecutive meeting; the vote was 9-3, with three regional Fed bank presidents voting for a rate hike.

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September was 36.8 per cent, of a cumulative 25bp hike was 63.2 per cent, and of a 50bp hike was 0 per cent (vs. 17.8 per cent, 60.2 per cent, and 22 per cent before the decision).

The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by October was 26.2 per cent, of a cumulative 25bp hike was 55.6 per cent, of a 50bp hike was 18.2 per cent, and of a 75bp hike was 0 per cent (vs. 11.9 per cent, 46.1 per cent, 34.7 per cent, and 7.3 per cent before the decision).

Fundamentals: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with 18 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), jointly issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for National Climate Change Response.”

According to the Plan, by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP are expected to decline by 17 per cent from the 2025 level, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of product for industries covered by the national carbon emissions trading market will drop by around 3 per cent from the 2025 level, an honest, transparent, methodologically unified, widely participated, and internationally aligned national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market will be established, the product carbon footprint management system will be basically built, monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes will be developed, the climate change adaptation framework will be further improved, phased progress will be made in building a climate-resilient society, and awareness and capacity to respond to climate change will continue to increase.

On the inventory front, as of Thursday, primary aluminium ingot inventory in major domestic consumption areas stood at 953,000 tonnes, down 26,000 tonnes from Monday and down 53,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday.

Primary aluminium market: In the morning session, the trading centre of the SHFE aluminium 2608 contract was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. Affected by sluggish end-use demand, overall market purchases today were mainly for essential stockpiling.

Influenced by rising aluminium prices, some traders became more active in selling, but purchase willingness was limited. Mainstream transaction prices were mostly at parity to the SHFE August contract to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE August contract. The East China market selling sentiment index was 3.16 today, up 0.08 from the previous day; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.00, unchanged from the previous day.

The repeated US-Iran conflict disrupted the night session, lifting SHFE aluminium prices. Today, traders and downstream processing enterprises in the central China market mainly stayed on the sidelines, with limited purchase willingness and sluggish transactions.

Some large suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, while smaller suppliers showed no pronounced tendency to hold prices, resulting in significant divergence between quotes and actual transaction prices.

Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were in the discount range of RMB 100-140 per tonne against the SHFE August contract, and the weakening trend persisted. The central China market selling sentiment index stood at 3.12 today, up 0.01 from the previous day; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.82, down 0.04 from the previous day.

Aluminium scrap: Today, the SMM A00 spot aluminium price closed at RMB 23,400 per tonne, up RMB 200 per tonne from the previous trading day. Prices in the domestic aluminium scrap market generally followed with an increase of RMB 100-200 per tonne.

Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, on July 29, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about RMB 2,030 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was about RMB 710 per tonne, both continuing to hover at historically extremely low levels.

On the import side, customs data showed that China's aluminium scrap imports totalled approximately 132,800 tonnes in June 2026, down from 152,000 tonnes in May, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. From a cumulative perspective for 2026, January-June aluminium scrap imports totalled approximately 981,800 tonnes.

Recently, import orders from Southeast Asia to Guangdong increased; although the import window improved from earlier, most new transactions were concentrated in low-priced resources, and overall spot market activity remained limited.

Affected by the UAE's aluminium scrap export ban and the EU's tariff hike policy, the contraction effect on premium imported aluminium scrap supply will become more evident in the future. This week, the aluminium scrap market is expected to continue the sideways pattern with demand pressure and cost support.

Amid the deepening off-season, downstream end-use orders are unlikely to see substantial improvement, and scrap utilization enterprises continue to purchase as needed, with purchasing sentiment unlikely to improve significantly.

The mainstream trading range for shredded aluminium tense scrap (priced based on aluminium content) is expected to be around RMB 19,800-20,500 per tonne. Currently, the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap has narrowed to a historical low, significantly weakening the economic advantage of aluminium scrap over primary aluminium.

If primary aluminium prices continue to fall subsequently, the substitution effect of primary aluminium for aluminium scrap will accelerate, and close attention should be paid to the crowding-out effect of aluminium price trends on aluminium scrap demand.

Secondary aluminium alloy: spot market: Today, ADC12 market quotations were generally raised by RMB 100 per tonne. Driven by the simultaneous rise in aluminium prices and futures, aluminium scrap procurement costs further increased, providing strong support from the cost side for ADC12 prices.

Most enterprises chose to raise their quotations accordingly to pass on cost pressure. However, based on market feedback, downstream demand remains in the off-season, and some enterprises are taking a wait-and-see approach toward actual transactions after the price adjustments.

Overall, the current rise in ADC12 prices is mainly cost-driven, and support from the demand side for sustained price increases remains insufficient. The short-term market is expected to maintain a pattern where cost support coexists with demand constraints, and future price movements will still depend on aluminium price fluctuations and downstream order follow-up.

Comprehensive outlook: The persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, combined with continuous destocking of domestic aluminium ingot, jointly underpins aluminium price operations. However, the continued commissioning of overseas aluminium capacity in the long term, weak traditional end-use demand in China, along with recurring expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation, exert significant pressure on the upside room for aluminium prices. Short-term aluminium prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.