Robust aluminium semis exports underscore China demand resilience amid supply pressures

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According to General Administration of Customs of People's Republic of China (GACC), in June 2026, China exported a total of 485,000 tonnes of aluminium sheets, strips, and foil, rising 10.4 per cent month-on-month and 37.9 per cent year-on-year.

Specifically, exports of aluminium strips, and sheets reached 354,000 tonnes, up 10.7 per cent month-on-month and 44.1 per cent year-on-year, while aluminium foil exports stood at 131,000 tonnes, increasing 9.7 per cent month-on-month and 23.7 per cent year-on-year.

Overall aluminium semis exports continued to grow in June, with notably stronger-than-expected yearly gains, underscoring the international competitiveness of Chinese aluminium products. The figures also reinforce the ongoing destocking trend in domestic primary aluminium inventories during June, effectively easing current supply-side pressures.

The aluminium foil market performed reasonably well in June, with exports rising both monthly and annually, the latter showing particularly sharp growth. As aluminium prices swung lower, downstream buying interest improved, driving down finished goods inventories.

Meanwhile, falling overseas prices stimulated restocking demand for essential products, including battery foil and food packaging foil used in energy storage and AI-related sectors, where orders rose rapidly month-on-month. By contrast, demand for air-conditioning foil remained lacklustre, underperforming historical levels on both domestic and export fronts.

Looking at July, aluminium prices have since stabilised and rebounded, recovering nearly RMB 1,500/tonne from their lows. Downstream acceptance of current price levels has gradually weakened. Earlier bearish narratives centred on overseas supply pressures and macro risks have largely played out, shifting market focus toward actual downstream order trends.

According to Mysteel research, July orders have held steady month-on-month overall, though capacity utilisation varies significantly across the industry. Leading producers report ample backlogs, whereas small and medium-sized enterprises face order books covering only three to five days of production. As prices continue to climb, downstream pickup activity has slowed, leading to a buildup in finished goods inventories.

Against the backdrop of the traditional off-season, many producers are adjusting production schedules to mitigate price volatility risks and maintain normal operations. Such marginal output cuts are expected to be reflected in August production figures.

Export orders have softened month-on-month, and heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict has made overseas buyers more cautious. Considering typical export lead times, July export volumes are likely to hold steady month-on-month, while August export data are expected to decline.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel