China's domestic bauxite prices remained firm last week, as supply tightness has not changed and is unlikely to improve in the near term. Some alumina producers in inland regions intend to raise consumption of seaborne bauxite amid the downward trend of seaborne bauxite prices.
In terms of seaborne bauxite, Guinea bauxite prices slipped further last week amid increasing shipments and rising expectations of the resumption of a major mining company. It's rumoured that SD Mining will resume production in the near term. According to Mysteel's research, there was no clear timetable for the resumption, but the company has reached an agreement with the government and is awaiting government approval to restart.
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In addition, some new projects in Guinea will start shipments in the near term. A new mining company told Mysteel that it will make the first shipment in late Nov to early Dec. Another company said that the export procedures have been completed, and it plans to officially start shipment in December.
A global aluminium group released a tender last Monday, selling bauxite sourced from Australia and Guinea with shipment during December 2025-March 2026. The bid prices mostly showed a gradually decreasing trend from recent months to distant months due to the expectations of the downward trend of seaborne bauxite prices. The overall bidding prices were lower compared to the previous round of the tender.
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On the demand side, despite expanding losses in the alumina sector, China's alumina operating capacity remained high, which kept bauxite demand at a high level. However, the downward trend of alumina prices persists and is unlikely to reverse in the near term, which continues to weigh on bauxite prices.
We expect the Guinea standard-grade bauxite price to slip below USD 70 per dry metric tonne late this year, driven by rising supply, high port stocks, and the downward trend of alumina prices.
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Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel
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