China alumina trade normalises after April's Middle East-driven surge, but sanctions reshape export map

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Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China imported 438,500 tonnes of alumina in May 2026, marking a month-on-month decrease of 28.11 per cent but a staggering year-on-year surge of 549.63 per cent.

Exports for the month stood at 283,300 tonnes, down 45.19 per cent from the previous month but up 36.33 per cent compared to the same period last year. Consequently, the net import volume reached 155,200 tonnes, representing a sharp rebound of 66.70 per cent month-on-month while recording a year-on-year decline of 210.62 per cent.

Looking at the broader January-to-May period, cumulative imports soared to 1.828 million tonnes, a massive increase of 994.74 per cent year-on-year, while cumulative exports totalled 1.3437 million tonnes, up 14.62 per cent. The cumulative net import volume for the first five months stood at 484,600 tonnes, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 148.20 per cent.

The decline in May imports represents a natural correction following the exceptional volumes recorded in April. An analysis of origins reveals that supply was primarily sourced from Australia, Indonesia, and India.

The elevated levels seen in the prior month were largely attributed to Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which forced a significant volume of Australian and Indonesian cargoes originally destined for the Middle East to be diverted to China. By May, this pulse of arrivals had subsided.

Specifically, imports from Australia, traditionally China's largest supplier, plummeted by half to 278,300 tonnes. This sharp contraction was driven by two main factors: firstly, the reallocation of Australian cargoes back to higher-priced markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

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Secondly, anticipation of tightening bauxite exports from Guinea pushed up FOB prices in Western Australia, and coupled with volatile ocean freight rates, these factors narrowed import arbitrage margins or even briefly closed them, dampening traders' enthusiasm for pricing new cargoes.

On the export side, the flow of alumina continued to be directed toward Russia, Oman, the UAE, and other nations, maintaining a distinct "Russia plus Middle East" dual-market structure.

Russia remains the top destination, as RUSAL continues to face difficulties securing supplies from traditional Western channels due to ongoing sanctions, forcing it to rely on normalised procurement through long-term trade agreements with China.

Meanwhile, partial production halts at smelters across the Middle East due to geopolitical instability have increased the region's dependence on external raw materials. Chinese enterprises establish stable supply relationships by utilising alternative logistics routes, such as routing shipments through the Port of Sohar in Oman, thereby circumventing the transit risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz.

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