Aluminium billet inventory successfully drops below 280Kt, destocking logic persists but demand recovery awaits verification

Stock image for referential purposes

According to SMM statistics, as of April 23, aluminium billet inventory across major consumption regions in China totalled 278,000 tonnes, down 14,000 tonnes W-o-W from last Thursday, successfully falling below 280,000 tonnes, largely in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. On warehouse withdrawals, aluminium billet warehouse withdrawals last week totalled 49,000 tonnes, down 5,000 tonnes W-o-W, mainly because aluminium prices rose above RMB 25,000 per tonne again, causing downstream players to adopt a wait-and-see attitude once more. Meanwhile, aluminium prices pulled back during the week, and downstream players selectively restocked on dips, leading to a slight rebound in warehouse withdrawals and continued destocking of aluminium billet inventory. However, judging from the current downstream consumption pace, the destocking of aluminium billet social inventory was not driven by a recovery on the demand side, but rather by warehouses prioritising aluminium ingot storage, resulting in a sharp decrease in aluminium billet warehouse inflows. Currently, aluminium billet operating rates struggle to rise, showing a mild operating trend, while the tight warehousing capacity situation has not eased. The operating logic of aluminium billet inventory remains unchanged, continuing the destocking pace. Aluminium billet inventory is expected to pull back to 250,000 tonnes by month-end. Going forward, attention should be paid to pre-holiday stockpiling and changes in downstream buying sentiment driven by aluminium price fluctuations.

Aluminium prices showed a weak pullback trend during the week, and aluminium billet processing fees barely recovered to above parity, with very limited rebound momentum. By region, processing fees in Foshan were quoted at RMB 170/200 per tonne, up RMB 210 per tonne W-o-W; Wuxi was quoted at RMB 80/180 per tonne, up RMB 130/100 per tonne W-o-W; Nanchang was quoted at RMB 60/110 per tonne, up RMB 210 per tonne W-o-W. Spot order market transactions recovered slightly during the week, with buying sentiment recovering, but the pre-holiday stockpiling pace was not evident, and the improvement in trading was limited. Processing fees are expected to trade within a range next week, with attention needed on the downstream pre-holiday stockpiling pace.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.