In the first two months of 2025, the world's primary aluminium production represented a year-on-year increase of 0.85 per cent, amounting to 11.88 million tonnes, which was significantly offset by declines M-o-M, according to the International Aluminium Institute's data. Following January when the world output was 6.235 million tonnes, slightly down by 0.30 per cent from 6.254 million tonnes, the production in February reached 5.645 million tonnes, further down by 9.46 per cent M-o-M. Fewer operation days likely contributed to the decline, even though daily production slightly increased from 201,100 tonnes in January to 201,600 tonnes.
Alongside, reduced output in some of the primary aluminium-producing regions played a critical role in the overall drop for February. Even on a year-on-year basis, the output in February 2025 recorded a downfall of 0.86 per cent from 5.694 million tonnes.
Which countries/regions contributed to the output decline in February?
In February 2025, all major primary aluminium-producing countries and regions, including China, the world's largest aluminium producer, contributed to the global decline in aluminium output. The decrease in production across these regions ranged between 9 per cent and 10 per cent, which averaged out to a 9.46 per cent month-on-month drop.
Africa experienced the highest decline, with a 10.22 per cent fall rate in production, from 137,000 tonnes in January to 123,000 tonnes in February. Oceania followed closely, with a 10.19 per cent plunge from 157,000 tonnes to 141,000 tonnes. In Europe (including Russia), primary aluminium production slumped by 10.05 per cent, from 597,000 tonnes in January to 537,000 tonnes in February.
Image source: International Aluminium Institute (IAI)
In February 2025, primary aluminium production in the Americas and GCC states stood at 423,000 tonnes and 490,000 tonnes, respectively, marking month-on-month declines of 9.62 per cent and 9.43 per cent from 468,000 tonnes and 541,000 tonnes in January. In Asia (excluding China), production dropped to 374,000 tonnes in February from 411,000 tonnes in January, reflecting a 9 per cent decline.
China, the world's largest producer of primary aluminium, churned out 3.37 million tonnes in February, a decrease of 9.41 per cent from 3.72 million tonnes in January.
On a year-on-year basis, most of these countries experienced a decline in primary aluminium production, with the exception of Africa, where output increased by 1,000 tonnes. In all other regions, including China and Europe, primary aluminium production contracted compared to the previous year. The declining rate in China and Europe was relatively small, limited to 1,000 tonnes and 3,000 tonnes, respectively, while regions like Oceania, the GCC, and the Americas saw reductions of 3.4 per cent to 4 per cent.
Why did the declines occur?
February is traditionally an off-season, especially in China, due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which typically causes a slowdown in manufacturing activities. While this year saw an increase in the operational rate, the holiday still had an impact. The exceptionally high alumina prices through the end of 2024 also contributed to the production decline in both January and February. Additionally, the US tariffs and broader economic concerns further contributed to the decline in primary aluminium production in February. Worries about tariffs and the strengthening of the US dollar played a role in the overall contraction of global aluminium production during this period.
Data source: International Aluminium Institute (IAI)
_md.webp)
