Why the price volatility in the global aluminium UBC scrap market: LME benchmarks and the underlying economic drivers

For the updated global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026"  

LME benchmarks and price discovery mechanisms

The pricing of aluminium UBC scrap has historically followed primary aluminium, but the introduction of LME-linked scrap contracts has altered that dynamic. The LME Primary Aluminium (P1020) contract continues to serve as the global reference point for intrinsic metal value, while the LME Aluminium UBC Scrap US (Argus) contract has emerged as the key benchmark for secondary feedstock pricing.

The two contracts operate differently but are structurally linked. Primary aluminium contracts are physically settled and tied to LME warehouse warranting, while the UBC scrap contract is cash-settled against Argus Media’s mill-grade delivered index. Both are priced in USD per tonne, but their applications diverge as primary contracts hedge smelter output and ingot supply, while scrap contracts hedge secondary feedstock flows.

Price discovery is tiered. The LME Official Price, established during the second Ring session, anchors physical contracts, while the Closing Price from LMEselect reflects broader market sentiment. For scrap participants, the critical variable is the “basis risk”—the spread between primary aluminium and scrap, after accounting for collection, logistics, and processing costs.

As of April 2026, the UBC scrap benchmark stood at approximately USD 2,518.78 per tonne for second-month settlement, while LME aluminium traded significantly higher, often exceeding USD 3,500 per tonne during supply disruptions. The spread between these benchmarks has become the most important indicator of market tightness. A narrowing spread signals feedstock scarcity or a rising green premium, while a widening spread reflects easing scrap availability or weakening downstream demand.

Economic catalysts and the energy arbitrage model

The most decisive driver of UBC scrap price volatility between 2021 and 2026 has been the divergence in energy economics between primary and secondary aluminium production.

Primary aluminium smelting requires approximately 13,000 to 15,000 kWh per tonne, making it one of the most energy-intensive industrial processes globally. In contrast, recycling UBC scrap requires only 700 to 750 kWh per tonne, accounting for roughly a mere 5 per cent of the energy input.

This disparity creates a structural energy arbitrage. During periods of elevated power prices, the cost advantage of scrap becomes overwhelming, effectively embedding an “energy value” into its pricing.

The European energy crisis of 2022 made this dynamic explicit. Between late 2021 and 2023, electricity costs for smelters rose by more than 300 per cent, at times accounting for over 80 per cent of total production costs. This led to the curtailment or shutdown of nearly half of Europe’s primary aluminium capacity.

As primary output declined in European countries, demand for UBC scrap surged. Secondary smelters capitalised on the avoided energy costs, establishing a firm demand floor for scrap. Even when primary aluminium prices softened under macroeconomic pressure, scrap markets remained tight due to this embedded energy premium.

Don't miss out- Buyers are looking for your products on our B2B platform

Geopolitical instability and supply chain fragility in 2026

By mid-2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East introduced a new layer of volatility. The region accounts for approximately 9 per cent of global aluminium supply, making it a critical export hub.

Disruptions — including attacks on key smelting infrastructure and risks to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz — pushed LME aluminium futures above USD 3,650 per tonne.

During this period, price movements illustrate the evolving relationship between primary and scrap markets. On April 13, 2026, LME aluminium reached USD 3,665.50 per tonne, while UBC scrap stood at USD 2,483.61, creating a spread of USD 1,181.89. By April 15, aluminium had softened to USD 3,581.00, while scrap held steady at USD 2,531.38, narrowing the spread to USD 1,049.62. By April 16, aluminium rebounded to USD 3,678.50, with scrap at USD 2,521.93, widening the spread again to USD 1,156.57.

This pattern highlights a lagged but amplified response in scrap pricing. When primary supply is threatened, secondary producers increase scrap procurement pre-emptively, tightening the market independently of immediate consumption demand. UBC scrap, therefore, functions increasingly as a strategic reserve rather than residual waste.

China’s pivot from primary dominance to secondary dependence

The country’s primary aluminium capacity is effectively capped at 45 million tonnes per year, forcing the country’s manufacturing leaders to prioritise recycling to sustain industrial growth. Secondary aluminium consumption rose from 12.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 13.35 million tonnes in 2025.

However, domestic scrap generation reached only 11.77 million tonnes in 2025, creating a supply gap of approximately 1.6 million tonnes. This deficit has been met through imports exceeding 2 million tonnes between January and November 2025 (the highest level in 8 years).

Thailand has emerged as a leading supplier, highlighting the increasingly globalised nature of scrap flows. China’s import liberalisation, including updated recycled material standards, has enabled aggressive sourcing of high-quality UBC scrap from Western markets.

This has two major impacts. First, it tightens scrap availability in exporting regions, boosting prices globally. Second, it reduces surplus primary aluminium supply, indirectly supporting LME aluminium benchmarks.

Decarbonisation and the institutionalisation of the green premium

Carbon economics have introduced a new and durable pricing variable into aluminium markets.

Primary aluminium production can emit between 13-15 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne when coal-powered, while secondary production from scrap emits less than 0.5 tonnes. This differential has led to the emergence of a measurable “green premium” for low-carbon aluminium.

Market agencies such as Fastmarkets have formalised this through low-carbon differentials, applied on top of LME base prices. In parallel, the LME has introduced sustainability thresholds, defining ‘green aluminium’ as material with a carbon footprint below 10 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne.

UBC scrap, as a readily available low-carbon feedstock, sits at the centre of this premium structure. Its pricing now reflects both cost and carbon advantages.

Corporate procurement strategies reinforce this trend. Ball Corporation, which shipped 111.9 billion beverage containers in 2025, is targeting 85 per cent recycled content by 2030. Novelis has already achieved 63 per cent recycled content, recycling approximately 82 billion cans annually, with a target of 75 per cent by 2030.

Even where companies have adjusted target (for example, Coca-Cola revising its recycled content ambitions due to cost pressures), the overall trajectory remains upward. These commitments create a sustained demand floor for UBC scrap, limiting downside volatility.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

Regulatory architecture and the risk of market fragmentation

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective from January 2026, imposes carbon-based levies on imports of carbon-intensive materials. Aluminium scrap, however, is assigned zero embedded emissions, giving it a structural advantage.

By 2028, CBAM costs for high-carbon aluminium imports could reach EUR 230 per tonne, incentivising the use of scrap-heavy inputs. This is expected to drive a reallocation of resources, with producers prioritising low-carbon feedstock to remain competitive.

At the same time, the EU’s Waste Shipment Regulation aims to restrict scrap exports to non-OECD countries. While intended to secure the domestic supply, this policy could create unintended distortions. Estimates suggest European scrap prices could fall by 15-25 per cent due to increased local availability, even as global prices rise in response to reduced exports.

Technical factors: collection efficiency and yield optimisation

Deposit Return Systems (DRS) play a critical role in determining supply quality. In countries with advanced DRS, such as Germany and Finland, aluminium can collection rates exceed 90-98 per cent, producing high-purity material with remelt yields above 95 per cent.

In contrast, the US records a national recycling rate of approximately 43 per cent, with significant variation between deposit states (around 75 per cent) and non-deposit states (approximately 37 per cent). Lower collection rates result in higher contamination and reduced yield, increasing processing costs and lowering effective supply.

Technological advancements are partially mitigating these constraints. AI-driven sorting and improved de-coating processes are enabling recyclers to upgrade lower-grade scrap into higher-quality feedstock. Facilities such as Novelis’ plants in South Korea and Germany are investing heavily in these capabilities, reflecting long-term confidence in scrap as a primary input.

Also read our latest blog- Green aluminium: What buyers need to know before making a sustainability claim

In sum, from discounted input to an irreplaceable commodity

Three quantitative trends define this transition. First, energy intensity differentials of up to 95 per cent have embedded a permanent cost advantage into scrap. Second, demand growth, exemplified by China’s 1.6 million tonne supply gap and rising corporate recycled content targets, is outpacing scrap generation. Third, carbon pricing mechanisms, such as CBAM, assign explicit economic value to low-emission feedstock.

At the same time, regulatory interventions and uneven collection systems are constraining supply. Even with technological improvements, high-purity UBC scrap remains in structural deficit relative to demand growth.

The result is a market where scrap is no longer a discounted derivative of primary aluminium. Instead, it is evolving into a strategic commodity with its own pricing logic, majorly driven by energy, carbon, and availability rather than solely by LME primary benchmarks.

If current trends persist, the spread between primary aluminium and UBC scrap, already fluctuating between USD 1,000 and USD 1,150 per tonne in April 2026, will increasingly reflect scarcity premiums rather than processing discounts.

By 2030, with secondary capacity continuing to expand and policy support intensifying, UBC scrap is likely to transition toward premium positioning in low-carbon markets. The defining constraint will not be production capacity, but access to high-quality scrap.

全球铝制废旧饮料罐（UBC）废料市场价格波动成因：LME基准价格与底层经济驱动因素

全球铝市场正告别百年以来依赖原铝冶炼的发展模式，逐步转型为以废旧铝饮料罐（UBC）再生料为核心的循环经济体系。这一转变不单出于环保考量，更具备深层经济逻辑：原铝生产能耗极高、碳关联贸易政策持续收紧，叠加伦敦金属交易所（LME）推动废料金融化发展，共同重塑行业格局。

曾经，废旧铝饮料罐废料价格仅受区域局部因素影响；如今，在伦交所定价基准、区域能源危机、跨国企业低碳原料战略储备等多重因素作用下，其价格已成为具备全球透明度的行业核心指标。

伦交所定价基准与价格形成机制

长期以来，废旧铝饮料罐废料价格紧跟原铝走势，但伦交所废料关联合约的落地，彻底改变了这一定价格局。伦交所P1020原铝合约仍是全球原生金属价值的核心参考标准，而伦交所美式废旧铝饮料罐废料（阿格斯指数）合约，则成为再生原料定价的关键基准。

两类合约运作模式不同，但存在结构性联动。原铝合约采用实物交割模式，绑定伦交所仓单体系；废旧铝饮料罐废料合约则参照阿格斯媒体钢厂级到货指数，实行现金交割。二者均以美元/吨计价，但应用场景截然不同：原铝合约用于冶炼厂产能与铝锭供应套期保值，废料合约则服务于再生原料流通风险对冲。

市场价格形成呈现层级化特征。伦交所第二场内交易时段敲定的官方定价，锚定实物贸易合同价格；伦交所电子盘收盘价则反映整体市场情绪。对于废料贸易商而言，基差风险是核心变量——即扣除回收、物流、加工成本后，原铝与再生铝废料之间的价差。

截至2026年4月，废旧铝饮料罐废料次月交割基准价约为每吨2518.78美元；同期伦交所原铝价格大幅走高，受供应中断影响，价格时常突破每吨3500美元。两类品种的价差，现已成为判断市场供需紧张程度的核心风向标：价差收窄，代表原料紧缺或低碳溢价上行；价差扩大，则意味着废料供应宽松、下游需求走弱。

经济驱动因素与能源套利逻辑

2021至2026年，原铝与再生铝生产成本的分化，是引发废旧铝饮料罐废料价格剧烈波动的决定性因素。

每吨原铝冶炼耗电量约13000至15000千瓦时，属于全球高耗能工业范畴；反观废旧铝饮料罐再生利用，每吨仅需耗电700至750千瓦时，能耗仅为原铝生产的5%左右。

巨大的能耗差距催生了长期结构性能源套利空间。在电力价格高涨周期，再生废料的成本优势被无限放大，能源价值也直接纳入废料定价体系。

2022年欧洲能源危机充分印证了这一规律。2021年末至2023年，欧洲冶炼企业用电成本涨幅超300%，电费最高可占生产总成本的80%以上。受此影响，欧洲近半数原铝产能被迫减产或关停。

欧洲原铝产量大幅收缩后，市场对废旧铝饮料罐废料的需求激增。再生冶炼企业依托能耗成本优势，稳固了废料的需求底线。即便宏观经济承压导致原铝价格回落，依托稳定的能源溢价，再生废料市场依旧保持紧平衡态势。

2026年地缘动荡与供应链脆弱性

2026年年中，中东地缘冲突持续升级，进一步加剧铝废料市场波动。中东地区铝供应量约占全球总量的9%，是全球关键铝产品出口枢纽。

关键冶炼设施遇袭、霍尔木兹海峡航运风险上升等供应链扰动事件，推动伦交所原铝期货价格突破每吨3650美元。

此阶段的价格走势，直观体现了原铝市场与再生废料市场的联动新特征。2026年4月13日，伦交所原铝报价达到每吨3665.50美元，废旧铝饮料罐废料价格为每吨2483.61美元，二者价差1181.89美元；4月15日，原铝价格回落至每吨3581.00美元，废料价格稳定在2531.38美元，价差收窄至1049.62美元；4月16日，原铝价格反弹至每吨3678.50美元，废料报价2521.93美元，价差再度扩大至1156.57美元。

由此可见，废料价格对原铝行情存在滞后反应，且波动幅度被放大。一旦原铝供应面临风险，再生铝生产企业会提前加大废料采购力度，脱离短期消费需求，直接收紧废料供给。废旧铝饮料罐废料，正从传统边角废料转变为重要的战略储备资源。

中国：从原铝主导到再生原料依赖转型

国内原铝产能已锁定每年4500万吨上限，制造业企业只能依靠再生铝产业，支撑工业持续发展。国内再生铝消费量从2024年的1270万吨增至2025年的1335万吨。

但2025年国内废料自产总量仅1177万吨，形成约160万吨原料缺口。供需缺口主要依靠进口补足，2025年1至11月，国内铝废料进口量突破200万吨，创下八年新高。

泰国已成为我国核心废料供应国，铝废料全球流通的一体化特征愈发显著。国内持续放宽再生材料进口管控、更新再生原料质量标准，助力企业大批量采购欧美高品质废旧铝饮料罐废料。

该趋势带来两大行业影响：一是出口国废料库存收紧，推动全球废料价格普涨；二是全球原铝过剩产能被消化，间接支撑伦交所原铝基准价格。

低碳转型与绿色溢价常态化

碳成本核算，已成为铝市场长期稳定的全新定价要素。

以煤炭为能源的原铝生产，每吨碳排放可达13至15吨；而铝废料再生冶炼的吨碳排放量不足0.5吨。巨大的碳排放差距，让低碳铝产品形成可量化的绿色溢价。

Fastmarkets等行业资讯机构，以伦交所基准价为基础，增设低碳铝价差定价体系；与此同时，伦交所出台可持续发展标准，将吨碳排放低于10吨的铝材划定为绿色铝。

废旧铝饮料罐废料作为易得的低碳原料，稳居绿色定价体系核心位置，其价格同时包含生产成本优势与低碳价值。

头部企业采购策略进一步巩固该趋势：波尔集团2025年饮料罐出货量达1119亿只，计划2030年再生原料使用占比提升至85%；诺贝丽斯当前再生原料占比已达63%，年回收易拉罐约820亿只，远期目标为2030年占比75%。

即便部分企业受成本压力下调再生原料使用目标（如可口可乐），行业低碳转型的整体趋势并未逆转。企业可持续发展承诺，为废旧铝饮料罐废料构筑长期需求底线，有效抑制价格下行风险。

监管政策与市场分化风险

欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）于2026年1月正式生效，针对高碳原材料进口征收碳关税；铝废料因碳排放核算归零，具备天然政策优势。

预计至2028年，高碳铝材进口的欧盟碳关税成本将达到每吨230欧元，倒逼生产企业加大再生废料使用比例，加速行业原料结构调整。

与此同时，欧盟《废料运输法规》拟限制废料向非经合组织国家出口，本意是保障本土原料供给，却极易引发市场扭曲。机构测算，出口受限将导致欧洲本地废料供给过剩，区域废料价格或下跌15%至25%，而全球废料价格将因流通量减少同步上行。

配套产业：回收效率与冶炼成材率优化

容器押金回收制度（DRS）直接决定废料供给质量。德国、芬兰等成熟市场，铝罐回收覆盖率高达90%~98%，废料纯度优异，再生冶炼成材率超95%。

反观美国，全国铝罐综合回收率仅43%，实行押金制度的州回收率约75%，无押金地区仅37%。低回收率会增加杂质含量、降低成材率，推高加工成本，压缩有效供给。

技术升级正在逐步破解行业痛点：人工智能分选技术、新型脱膜工艺，可将低品级废料升级为高品质生产原料。诺贝丽斯等企业在韩国、德国布局智能化再生基地，充分体现行业对废料原料长期价值的认可。

总结：从廉价边角料到核心战略大宗商品

三大核心趋势完成行业重塑：其一，近95%的能耗差距，赋予再生废料永久性成本优势；其二，以中国160万吨原料缺口、企业再生原料指标提升为代表，废料需求增速持续高于产能增速；其三，碳关税等市场化碳定价机制，明确赋予低碳原料经济价值。

政策约束与区域回收体系不均衡，持续限制废料供给增长。即便生产技术不断迭代，高纯度废旧铝饮料罐废料仍长期处于供不应求的结构性短缺状态。

如今，铝废料不再是依附原铝定价的廉价副产品，而是具备独立定价逻辑的战略大宗商品，价格走势主要受能源成本、碳排放政策、原料供需格局主导，不再单一跟随伦交所原铝价格波动。

按照当前发展趋势，2026年4月维持在每吨1000至1150美元的原铝与废料价差，未来将更多反映原料稀缺溢价，而非传统加工折价。

至2030年，全球再生铝产能持续扩张、低碳扶持政策不断加码，废旧铝饮料罐废料有望在低碳材料市场实现溢价定位。未来行业发展的核心瓶颈，不在于冶炼产能，而在于高品质再生铝废料的稳定获取能力。