Vedanta Ltd Q4 estimates: Profits to soar 174%, aluminium to be a key growth driver

India’s leading metals manufacturer, Vedanta Limited, is expected to close FY2025–26 on a strong note, as analysts project a sharp earnings upswing in the January-March quarter (Q4). This performance has received considerable support from favourable London Metal Exchange (LME) price trends. Firm prices for aluminium, zinc and silver are expected to drive growth across the company’s primary business segments.

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Brokerage estimates are pointing towards a substantial year-on-year (Y-o-Y) expansion in profitability, with adjusted profit after tax (PAT) to rise approximately by 174 per cent. The improvement is attributed to higher commodity prices, greater volumes, and a broader recovery in terms of operating performance.

At the same time, the company’s stock has reflected this optimism, witnessing steady buying interest preceding the earnings announcement scheduled for April 29, 2026. The counter trading stood at INR 740.35 (USD 7.84) per share at 12:32 PM, indicating a 2.69 per cent surge from its previous close of INR 720.95 (USD 7.63) per share on the NSE.

What do the brokerages expect from Vedanta’s Q4 performance?  

Across brokerage houses, expectations remain broadly aligned on strong revenue and EBITDA growth.

Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services highlight that supportive LME pricing in aluminium will play a central role in boosting earnings, although rising cost of production, owing to supply-side constraints, could weigh on margins.

Motilal Oswal’s estimates of Vedanta’s Q4 performance:  

• Net sales – INR 496.7 billion (USD 5.26 billion), up 22.8 per cent Y-o-Y from INR 404.6 billion (USD 4.28 billion) in Q4 FY25
• EBITDA – INR 176.1 billion (USD 1.86 billion), up 53.5 per cent Y-o-Y from INR 114.7 billion (USD 1.21 billion) in Q4 FY25
• Adjusted profit after tax (APAT) – INR 95.5 billion (USD 1.01 billion), up 174.3 per cent from INR 4.8 billion (USD 50.81 million)

Management commentary on the proposed demerger timeline, close of pay (CoP), debt position, and guidance on volumes is to be closely followed.

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Similarly, Kotak Institutional Equities is anticipating strong EBITDA growth, which is expected to rise 27 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 59 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by stronger commodity prices and lower alumina prices. The aluminium segment, in particular, is projected to deliver substantial gains, reinforced by improved pricing dynamics.

Kotak’s estimates of Vedanta’s Q4 performance:  

• Net sales – INR 511.19 billion (USD 5.41 billion), up 26.4 per cent Y-o-Y
• EBITDA – INR 182.6 billion (USD 1.93 billion), up 59.3 per cent Y-o-Y
• Adjusted PAT – INR 79.35 billion (USD 839.96 million), up 127.8 per cent Y-o-Y

Regarding the aluminium EBITDA, Kotak has stated, “We forecast aluminium EBITDA to increase Q-o-Q by 25 per cent (+88 per cent Y-o-Y), primarily due to higher aluminium and lower alumina prices, partially offset by hedged quantities.”  

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According to ICICI Securities, higher LME aluminium prices and realisations, coupled with a modest decline in the Indian rupee and improved volumes, are likely to support overall earnings momentum.

ICICI’s estimates of Vedanta’s Q4 performance:  

• Revenue – INR 486.93 billion (USD 5.15 billion), up 20.4 per cent Y-o-Y from INR 404.55 billion (USD 4.28 billion) in Q4 FY25
• EBITDA – INR 163.46 billion (USD 1.73 billion), up 42.6 per cent Y-o-Y from 114.7 billion (USD 1.21 billion) in Q4 FY25
• PAT (before minority) – INR 82.92 billion (USD 877.7 million), up 67.2 per cent from 4.8 billion (USD 50.81 million)

The brokerage also expects the company to maintain its relative outperformance within the sector.

While the earnings outlook remains positive, rising input costs as well as aluminium supply constraints continue to pose a potential risk to margins. Consequently, the upcoming results will be assessed based on how effectively Vedanta Limited manages cost pressures and sustains operational efficiency.

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