
While the USA is holding on to its 10 per cent import tariff on aluminium from all countries, every aluminium exporter to the US is fighting for exemptions from the tariff. The main issue of overcapacity in China and the export of subsidized aluminium to the US is taking a backseat while protectionist policy is creating supply concerns among the aluminium consumers in the US.
We are trying to analyse the top aluminium (alloyed and non-alloyed) exporters to the US and their contribution to total import by the US for the year 2017. Canada remains the top aluminium exporter to the US contributing about 61% of the total import. Our data shows Canada exported about 2.36 million tonnes of aluminium to the US in 2017. The value of import stood at US$ 4.3 billion.
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Russia stood second with the export of about 698 thousand tonnes of total aluminium and the value of import stood at US$1.4 billion. UAE comes at a tight third position with export of about 659 thousand tonnes of aluminium to the US and the value standing at 1.3 billion. Argentina exports about 251 thousand tonnes of aluminium to the US. China exports a very insignificant amount of 3830 tonnes of aluminium to the US. The graph below shows the total aluminium export by the above five countries in tonnes.

If we consider both crude and alloy aluminium and semi-finished aluminium product exports together for 2017 the listing looks like below:

The listing shows that China’s contribution to the US total import still remains low compared to other countries. In the battle with China, it is all other exporters to the US who are facing trade restrictions. Russia is the second largest supplier of aluminium to the US and the country has been barred from having any financial transaction with companies in the US after the punitive sanctions against Rusal. If the tariffs and the sanctions are finally implemented they are going to have a significant effect on the manufacturing sector in the US due to cost pressure. The concerns have already lifted the LME aluminium prices and the US aluminium premiums.
The prices have recently started correction with the US attempt at damage control through extension of the deadline on sanctions. U.S. President has also postponed the imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada, the European Union and Mexico until June 1, and has reached agreements for permanent exemptions for Argentina, Australia and Brazil. But it is almost sure that these developments are going to effect the trade equations between the US and its major aluminium suppliers.
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