中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。

Since the onset of US-Israel and Iran conflict, the aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged without a hint of slowing down. At present, the price stands at USD 3,385 per tonne (as of March 6), gaining 4.9 per cent since February 28 (USD 3,226 per tonne), and this upward trajectory is likely to continue. Considering the potential escalation of supply chain disruptions from the Middle East due to the block of the Strait of Hormuz, ING Group, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Amsterdam, has already projected the aluminium price to grow above USD 4,000 per tonne.

At the start of 2026, primary aluminium prices on LME were already in a bullish trend, standing at USD 3,015.50 per tonne as in early January due to a convergence of constrained supply, tightened physical availability, and US-EU’s trade policy rigidity. PricePedia’s December 9, 2025, publication had already put the price projection for 2026 in bullish territory, estimating an annual rise of 10 per cent at the end of the year. Now, the geo-political unrest in the Middle East has added a further upside to the LME price, estimating it to outperform the earlier projection.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

The Middle East, being one of the major hubs of primary aluminium production, contributes more than 8 per cent to the world production. But in 2025, the region’s primary aluminium production fall from 6.346 million tonnes to 6.159 million tonnes sent through a supply risk to the world aluminium market. To this contributed China’s capacity caps, trade dislocations due to revised policies, and imminent shutdown of South32’s Mozal, bringing further tightening to the world aluminium supply.

Hence, the average LME inventory stood at around 522,771 tonnes at the end of December 2025, down by 28.4 per cent Y-o-Y from 671,203 tonnes. Over the past three months, the inventory further plunged to 460,445 tonnes.  

Going forward, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles an export volume of 5.14 million tonnes of primary aluminium annually, a further disruption in supply chain is expected. Besides accounting for about 9 per cent of the global aluminium production, the region contributes to even larger share of internationally traded metal.

For 2026 aluminium market outlook, download our report TOC: Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2026

Moreover, despite being one of the major aluminium production hubs, the region produces only 3 per cent of global alumina and 1 per cent of bauxite, which makes it reliant of imported raw materials. So, extended disruptions in the Strait would also choke alumina and bauxite inflows into the Gulf countries, tightening global supply meaningfully.

霍尔木兹海峡封锁引发铝价预测上调，突破4000美元/吨

美以与伊朗冲突爆发以来，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铝价持续飙升，涨势未见放缓。截至3月6日，铝价报每吨3385美元，较2月28日的每吨3226美元上涨4.9%，且这一上行趋势或将延续。荷兰跨国银行和金融服务公司（ING）考虑到霍尔木兹海峡封锁可能导致中东供应链中断加剧，已将铝价预期上调至每吨4000美元以上。

2026年初，LME原铝价格已呈现看涨态势。受供应受限、现货收紧及美欧贸易政策趋严等多重因素影响，1月初铝价报每吨3015.50美元。Price Pedia 在2025年12月9日的报告中已预判 2026 年铝价走强，预计全年涨幅 10%。如今中东地缘政治动荡进一步推升 LME 铝价，预计将超出此前预期。

中东作为全球主要原铝产地之一，产量占全球总产量8%以上。2025 年，该地区原铝产量从 634.6 万吨降至 615.9 万吨，加剧全球铝市供应风险。叠加中国产能管控、政策调整带来的贸易扰动，以及 South32 旗下莫扎尔铝厂（Mozal）即将停产，全球铝供应进一步收紧。

截至 2025 年 12 月末，LME 铝库存平均约 52.28 万吨，同比下降 28.4%（去年同期 67.12 万吨）；过去三个月内，库存进一步降至 46.04 万吨。

霍尔木兹海峡为关键航运通道，每年原铝出口量达 514 万吨。未来该海峡若持续封锁，供应链将面临进一步中断风险。中东地区铝产量约占全球 9%，但其在全球铝贸易中占比更高。

此外，尽管是主要产铝地区，中东氧化铝产量仅占全球 3%，铝土矿仅占 1%，高度依赖原料进口。因此，霍尔木兹海峡长期中断将抑制海湾国家氧化铝与铝土矿进口，显著收紧全球供应。

The image is AI-generated and for illustrative purpose only.