SMM Morning Review – 2011/7/21 Aluminum Market

Changing debt crises in Europe and the US have kept investors cautious, and they are optimistic that an agreement for Greek bailout will be reached during the European Union Summit. As a result, the Euro climbed on July 20. Later during the day, US National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that existing home sales fell 0.8% in June, which though was higher than previous figure but was far below expectations. With rising Euro and weak US economic data, the US dollar index broke the daily moving averages and fell below 75, hitting 74.631 during the day. The US dollar index finally closed at 74.675 due to strong resistance, down 0.57%.

During European trading hours, LME aluminum prices narrowly fluctuated between USD 2,540-2,560/mt. Though the US dollar index fell below 75, LME aluminum prices failed to rose and total positions decreased by 14,203 lots to 664,712 lots due to short selling. At the tail of trading, LME aluminum prices dipped below USD 2,540/mt and finally closed at USD 2,534.8/mt, down USD 15.3/mt or 0.6%.

SMM expects LME aluminum prices to struggle at the 30-day moving average and fluctuate between USD 2,520-2,570/mt on July 21st. Most active SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices are expected to test RMB 17,600/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,550-17,800/mt. Spot aluminum prices will stand steady due to tight supply, with premiums expected to maintain between positive RMB 30-80/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Since consumers keep purchasing on an as-needed basis, market sentiment will be slightly sluggish.