SMM Daily Review – 2011/8/2 Base Metals Market

As LME aluminum prices fell overnight, most active SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices opened lower at RMB 18,350/nt on August 2nd. After sluggish Shanghai Composite Index forced some longs to exit the market, with total positions of SHFE 1110 aluminum contracts decreasing by 14,000 lots, SHFE aluminum prices struggled at the 5-day moving average. Finally closed price was RMB 18,340/mt, down RMB 205/mt or 1.11% from previous trading day. Though most active SHFE aluminum contract prices erased gains on the previous day, downward pace of aluminum prices was relatively slower than that of other metals prices. SMM expects bearish sentiment in other metals markets will drag down aluminum prices to test RMB 18,300/mt in the short term.

Morning traded prices of spot aluminum in Shanghai on August 2nd were between RMB 18,500-18,530/mt, with premiums of positive RMB 50-80/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. After SHFE current-month aluminum prices opened lower and tested RMB 18,500/mt, selling interest at lower prices was low among goods holders, which helped spot aluminum prices consolidate at RMB 18,500/mt. Market transactions were slightly sluggish due to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers and middlemen. In the afternoon, SHFE current-month aluminum prices narrowly fluctuated, and spot premiums were maintained at positive RMB 80/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Mainstream traded prices were between RMB 18,470-18,500/mt. Market transactions were rarely reported due to strong wait-and-see sentiment.