1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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Primary aluminium inventory across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, shrank 14,000 tonnes further from last Thursday, July 26, to stand at 1.78 million tonnes as of Thursday, August 2, 2018, Shanghai Metals Market research found. Limited arrivals from smelters accounted for the drop, although slower from a week-on-week decline of 28,000 tonnes recorded on July 26. In the meanwhile, the inventories had gained during the week by 1,000 tonnes from Monday, July 30. Below chart shows the inventory status across all the Chinese markets in more details: On the face of declining inventory and tight supply in the market, A00 aluminium ingot price climbed today, August 3, to RMB 14280 per tonne after a drop in past two days in a row, SMM learned. The average prices...
Emirates Global Aluminium, the largest aluminium producer in the United Arab Emirates signed an agreement with Gulf Cement Company to supply 27,000 tonnes of spent pot lining, a by-product from aluminium smelting. The waste material will be supplied over next three years for use in cement manufacturing. EGA has been supplying spent pot lining to the cement industry through third parties since 2010. However, this is the first time such an agreement is signed between EGA and a cement company outside its circle. EGA is building facilities at its Al Taweelah site to process spent pot lining so that it can be delivered ready to be used by cement companies as an alternative fuel and raw material. Abdulla Kalban, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of EGA, said: “This direct agreement...
Century Aluminum Company reported net income of $19.4 million for the second quarter of 2018. Results were negatively impacted by $8.5 million related to the equipment failure at Sebree and $3.0 million in expenses related to the Hawesville restart project. This result compares to a net loss of $0.3 million for the first quarter of 2018, which included a $3.2 million benefit from lower of cost or net realizable value ("NRV") inventory adjustments. Adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2018 was $30.9 million compared to an adjusted net loss of $3.5 million for the first quarter of 2018. For the second quarter of 2018, adjusted EBITDA was $54.5 million, up $32.7 million from the first quarter of 2018. The increase was primarily attributable to higher LME and regional premiums and...
The US dollar index inched up to 94.7 overnight after the Federal Reserve concluded a two-day meeting on monetary policy and kept interest rates unchanged. Both LME and SHFE base metals fell across the board overnight. LME aluminium closed the day’s trading at US$2036per tonne. Later on it gained at night trading and fell to a low of $2,047.5/mt overnight. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,045-2,060 per tonne today. As on August 1, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2035 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2036 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2057 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2057.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2105 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening...
After seven consecutive months of decline, Weiqiao Group has raised its purchasing prices for pre-baked anode by RMB 180 per tonne for August. The price is now standing at RMB 3280 per tonne in cash and RMB 3135 per tonne on acceptance, according to the latest update by Shanghai Metals Market. SMM believes that this upward adjustment indicates the beginning of a new round of restocking for the winter. Also, this negotiation further occurred as many producers were not accepting an earlier downward adjustment of RMB 150 per tonne because of the losses in the market for pre-baked anode. According to another update by SMM, East Hope Group in China has commissioned part of its primary aluminium project in Guyang county, Baotou city in Inner Mongolia on August 1. The project includes capacity...
Rio Tinto has announced yet another strong set of results in H1 2018 with an underlying EBITDA of US$9.2 billion and operating cash flow of US$5.2 billion for the entire group of companies, followed by declaring its superior returns of US$7.2 billion to shareholders comprising of US$3.2 billion from operations and US$4 billion from asset disposals. The Aluminium group’s underlying EBITDA in H1 2018 stood at US$1, 831 million, up 10 per cent from H1 2017, primarily driven by stronger pricing. Net cash flow from operating activities increased as well by 1 per cent to stand at US$ 1.1 million, while capital expenditure grew by 76 per cent to stand at US$ 8,06,000, as construction at Amrun accelerated in H1 2018. However, the company’s total aluminium production plunged a little in H1 2018 at...
According to the global export-import data, aluminium export by the Russian Federation is expected to grow in CY2018 totalling 4.6 million tonnes, 15 per cent up from 4 million tonnes in CY2017; while in 2016, the aluminium export recorded at 3.8 million tonnes. This shows the Russia Federation is expected to see year-on-year growth as far as the aluminium export is concerned. Besides global export, Russia’s aluminium export to the United States is also estimated to grow, compared to the last calendar year. The estimation in CY2018 stands at 877669 tonnes, higher from the actual export volume of 697804 tonnes in 2017 and 704961 tonnes in 2016. Along with the increase in export volume, Russia’s export revenue is also expected to grow to US$ 21147 million in CY 2018, from US$ 7436 million...
The US dollar index inched up 0.17% overnight and stood at 94.5. LME closed the day’s trading at US$ 2061 per tonne, higher than the previous closing. The contract traded rangebound within a wide range on Tuesday night with a high of US$2,094 per tonne and a low of US$2,068 per tonne. While the contract has stood above the five-day moving average, it is likely to continue to hover within a wide range as the US dollar index rose. It is expected to trade at US$2,070-2,100 per tonne today. As on July 31, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2060.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2061 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2075.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2076 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
Vedanta Resources plc's subsidiary Vedanta Limited announced consolidated results for the first quarter ended 30 June 2018. The company reported continued strong financial performance. The company reported revenues of INR 22,206 crore, up 15 % YoY and EBITDA of INR 6,529 crore, up 31% YoY. Vedanta reported PAT at INR 1,533 crore, up 2% YoY and a strong financial position with total cash & liquid investments of INR 35,251 crore. Vedanta reported record quarterly aluminium production of 482kt and commencement of Odisha bauxite delivery to its Lanjigarh refinery. Commenting on the results, Mr. Kuldip Kaura, Chief Executive Officer, Vedanta Ltd, said: "We delivered strong EBITDA and steady margins this quarter driven by record volumes in aluminium, higher production in Oil & Gas, as well as,...
The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter has recruited 90 extra staff for its fourth potline and is already training them. This brings the total number of workers at the plant to 900, including contractors. Smelter general manager Stewart Hamilton says this recent recruitment drive has been the biggest since the 1990s. The fourth potline at the smelter will begin its operation by the end of the year and gradually increase production with a hike in orders. Out of these 90 new workers, most of them are from Southland. Hamilton reports this was a challenge to bring people from an outside environment to a large industrial high-tech environment, stating further "We have to make sure people are aware of the safety hazards and risks, know how to operate the equipment and be able to do it in a timely...
The US dollar index dipped 0.33% overnight and stood at 94.3, ahead of economic data release and central bank monetary policy meetings this week. LME base metals, except for zinc, rose across the board on Monday. After closing at US$ 2054 per tonne on Monday, LME aluminium climbed past the five-day moving average and hit a high of US$2,093 per tonne overnight. It is likely to extend its gains if its SHFE counterpart continues to strengthen. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,070-2,090 per tonne today. As on July 30, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2052 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2054 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2073 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2074 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2122 per tonne,...
Primary aluminium spot discounts in east China narrowed on Monday, July 30, as local traders showed keen interest to purchase, Shanghai Metals Market learned. Discounts stood at RMB 70 to RMB 60 per tonne after dropping from RMB 90 to RMB 80 per tonne as on Friday, July 27. The SHFE August contract, however, gained in the morning trading session on Monday, July 30. Active liquidity among traders primarily drove the trading activity in east China. Some local traders held back as some had long-term contracts to fulfil. Some sellers also held on to cargoes because of the recent hike in aluminium prices. In Shanghai and Wuxi, most transactions were seen at RMB 14290 per tonne to RMB 14300 per tonne, while in Hanhzhou, transactions were heard at RMB 14300 per tonne to RMB 14320 per tonne....
The director of the White House National Economic Council on Sunday, July 29, staunchly defended the US President Donald Trump’s use of targeted tariffs against China and appreciated President’s no tariffs decision on the European Union. During an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Larry Kudlow said, “You know, if they're targeted for good purpose, as per China, I think the answer is absolutely yes.” “That's always been my view. Most free traders agree. China has not played by the rules. And the trading system is broken, largely because of them.” Then commenting on the US no tariffs decision on the EU, he said, “Now, I hope we get to our EU trade deal,” “The president has adopted a view with which I completely agree. He's a free trader. And he wants to have no tariffs.” He further...
The dollar index slipped and closed at 94.66 last Friday as strong US economic growth in the second quarter failed to ease trade tensions. Most LME metals fell last Friday. LME aluminium closed the Friday trading at US$ 2055 per tonne and lost all of its early gains in the night trading hours and closed the last week above the 10-day moving average. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade rangebound between the 10- and five-day moving averages today with a trading range of US$2,050-2,070 per tonne. As on July 27, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2053 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2055 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2068.50per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2069 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2118 per tonne, and Dec 19...
Primary aluminium inventory in China continued to shrink over the weekend ended on July 30, 2018, as consumption was bolstered by exports despite a low season in the domestic market, Shanghai Metals Market research found. The inventory across eight major consumption areas, including SHFE warrants, decreased 15,000 tonnes from last Thursday, July 26, to stand at 1.78 million tonnes, SMM data showed. The slow commissioning of new capacity dragged by rebounding costs could also be attributed to this further decline in inventory. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory today stood at 761,000 tonnes, while the inventory in Shanghai registered at 415,000 tonnes. In Nanhai and Guangdong, and Gongyi and Henan, the inventory recorded 229,000 tonnes and 162,000 tonnes, respectively. To know more, refer...
Global aluminum production growth ground to a standstill in the first half of this year. The world’s smelters produced 31.76 million tonnes of metal in January-June, a 1 percent decline on the first half of 2017, according to the International Aluminum Institute (IAI). Expressed in annualized terms, global output in June was almost two million tonnes lower than a year earlier. Production outside of China has been creeping higher since January but the growth rate is being constrained by an unusually high level of disruption with multiple plants operating at reduced rates. National run rates in China, the world’s largest single producer, have also been recovering from last year’s combination of “illegal” capacity closures and winter heating season restrictions but are still down on...
Another feather of glory adds to the hat of Rio Tinto as it stands as the first company in the entire aluminium value chain to receive the Chain of Custody Certification from Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI). This means Rio is now the only officially qualified company to sell aluminium with certification of assurance for highest environmental, social, and governance standards. Besides, this certification takes Rio a step ahead in commitment to responsible mining and metals production as the company to provide independent verification to customers that would allow them to trace the material through a ‘chain of custody’ spanning Rio Tinto’s Gove bauxite mine in Australia, its alumina refinery, aluminium smelters and casthouses in Quebec, Canada. Rio chief executive Alf Barrios said,...
The US dollar rose 0.6% last night to close at 94.76 as the euro fell. Base metals inched up for the most part as market worries eased after the US and EU stepped back from a potential trade war and agreed to be at the negotiation table. LME aluminium closed yesterday’s trading at US$ 2054 per tonne and felt pressure at the 20-day moving average during the European trading session as the US dollar strengthened. With support at the 10-day moving average, it closed the night trading at US$2,068 per tonne after dipping to a low of US$2,053 per tonne. With LME inventory going down 1,625 tonne to 1,207,600 tonnes, the contract is expected to trade rangebound at US$2,052-2,080 per tonne today. As on July 26, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2053.50 per tonne, LME official settlement...
