
The dollar index slipped and closed at 94.66 last Friday as strong US economic growth in the second quarter failed to ease trade tensions. Most LME metals fell last Friday. LME aluminium closed the Friday trading at US$ 2055 per tonne and lost all of its early gains in the night trading hours and closed the last week above the 10-day moving average. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade rangebound between the 10- and five-day moving averages today with a trading range of US$2,050-2,070 per tonne.

As on July 27, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2053 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2055 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2068.50per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2069 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2118 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2123 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1200025 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 852900 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 347125 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2066 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased slightly to US$ 2090 per tonne on July 30, from US$ 2085 per tonne on July 27.
After shorts dragged the SHFE 1809 contract down to RMB 14,335 per tonne, the contract climbed to RMB 14,435 per tonne on Friday afternoon, its highest in close to three days. The SHFE 1809 contract traded strongly rangebound last Friday night and hit a high of RMB 14,445 per tonne. But strong pressure was seen at the 60-day moving average. The contract closed at RMB 14,410 per tonne as longs covered their positions and shorts added their bets before close. We expect the contract to trade at RMB 14,350-14,450 per tonne today. Spot discounts are seen at RMB 120-80 per tonne.
Key things to watch today will be a deluge of eurozone sentiment indicators covering services, business, industrial confidence, consumer confidence and economic sentiment. Besides, Germany will unveil the latest consumer inflation report for July and the US will release pending home sales for July.
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