
The US dollar index inched up 0.17% overnight and stood at 94.5. LME closed the day’s trading at US$ 2061 per tonne, higher than the previous closing. The contract traded rangebound within a wide range on Tuesday night with a high of US$2,094 per tonne and a low of US$2,068 per tonne. While the contract has stood above the five-day moving average, it is likely to continue to hover within a wide range as the US dollar index rose. It is expected to trade at US$2,070-2,100 per tonne today.

As on July 31, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2060.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2061 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2075.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2076 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2130 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1196300 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 847825 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 348475 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2089 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped slightly to US$ 2104 per tonne on July 31, from US$ 2106 per tonne on July 30.
As longs grew and provided support, the SHFE 1809 contract stood firm above the five-day moving average yesterday. It gained RMB 125 per tonne from Monday to close at RMB 14,540 per tonne. The SHFE 1809 contract initially jumped to a high of RMB 14,615 per tonne overnight. But it fell and closed at RMB 14,515 per tonne as shorts entered the market. The contract is likely to stand above the RMB 14,500 per tonne level after it has broken through all the moving averages. SMM expects it to trade at RMB 14,500-14,650 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 100-60 per tonne.
Key factors to watch today will be Caixin’s July manufacturing PMI for China, Markit’s July manufacturing PMI for the US and eurozone, ISM manufacturing PMI for the US, US ADP payrolls in July and the US weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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