Aluminium export from Russia to see a growth in CY2018 on the ease of US sanctions against Rusal

According to the global export-import data, aluminium export by the Russian Federation is expected to grow in CY2018 totalling 4.6 million tonnes, 15 per cent up from 4 million tonnes in CY2017; while in 2016, the aluminium export recorded at 3.8 million tonnes.  This shows the Russia Federation is expected to see year-on-year growth as far as the aluminium export is concerned.

Besides global export, Russia’s aluminium export to the United States is also estimated to grow, compared to the last calendar year. The estimation in CY2018 stands at 877669 tonnes, higher from the actual export volume of 697804 tonnes in 2017 and 704961 tonnes in 2016.

Along with the increase in export volume, Russia’s export revenue is also expected to grow to US$ 21147 million in CY 2018, from US$ 7436 million in CY 2017. In 2016, the revenue earned by the Russian Federation from aluminium export stood at US$ 6689 million.

The export revenue from the United States is also estimated to climb to as high as US$ 1723 million in CY 2018, from US$ 1435 million in CY 2017 and US$ 1277 in CY 2016. This shows that although the export volume from Russia to the US stood lower in 2017 compared to its previous year, the revenue generation recorded higher.

The estimated increase in Russia’s export volume and export revenue could be primarily because of the fact that the US may consider dropping severe sanctions against Russian aluminium giant UC Rusal. Late July, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the department would be opening to removing Rusal from the list of companies which were due to be hit by the sanctions.

The ease of the US sanctions on Rusal is expected to drive the aluminium production in Russia and thus, the export volume and revenue.