Canada’s H1’26 aluminium exports dip 12.57% amid US tariffs: What does H2 hold?

The first half (H1) of 2026 witnessed Canada’s exports of unwrought aluminium taking a deep plunge. The country supplied a total of 1.33 million tonnes of aluminium products to the world including unwrought aluminium, bars, rods and profiles, aluminium foil, pipes and tubes, plates, sheets and strips, tubes or pipe fittings and aluminium wire. Out of the grand total, unwrought aluminium occupied the lion’s share or 86.58 per cent, the export volume reaching 1.16 million tonnes.

H1 snapshot: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024

Over the past 2 years, Canada’s unwrought aluminium exports in January-June period have seen a year-on-year dip:

2026 vs 2025: 1.16 million tonnes vs 1.32 million tonnes, down 12.57 per cent Y-o-Y

2025 vs 2024: 1.32 million tonnes vs 1.5 million tonnes, down 12.02 per cent Y-o-Y

The figures indicate that the declining momentum is growing, even if not at an alarming pace.

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Q1 vs Q2 comparison

Comparing the two quarters in H1 2026, Q2 has reported a quarter-on-quarter decline by 0.36 per cent with the export volume dropping to 576,490 tonnes from 578,559 tonnes.

Although the export volume of 600,782 tonnes in Q2 2025 has recorded a much drastic decline of 16.72 per cent from 721,400 tonnes shipped in Q1 2025, the overall volume dip points to a weaker annual export graph.

Top destinations

The top buyers of Canadian unwrought aluminium in H12026 are as follows:

• The US – 871,878 tonnes or 75.48 per cent
• Netherlands – 158,269 tonnes or 13.7 per cent
• Mexico – 56,063 tonnes or 4.85 per cent
• Italy – 55,393 tonnes or 4.8 per cent
• Greece – 9,999 tonnes or 0.87 per cent

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If the H1 run rate broadly carries into H2, the estimated export projection would stand around 1.15 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium, indicating a 0.86 per cent gap between the two six-month periods.

This would bring the 2026 export total to approximately 2.31 million tonnes, leading to a Y-o-Y decline in Canada’s annual export volume by 10.12 per cent from the 2025 shipment volume of 2.57 million tonnes, which had seen a similar Y-o-Y drop of 12.29 per cent from the 2024 levels of 2.93 million tonnes.

Canada’s H2 2026 aluminium exports face continued pressure as escalating Section 232 tariffs, full-value assessment, and broken-down US trade talks deepen the H1 decline.

Since the US-Canada trade relationships owing to the US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs finding no middle ground, the H2 unwrought aluminium export from Canada is likely to move along a declining trend into H2 2026.

However, structural US dependence on Canadian aluminium, accounting for about 52 per cent of the US’ overall unwrought aluminium imports, historical rebound patterns after inventory depletion and Middle East supply disruptions may partially cushion the depletion.

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