1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The dollar index logged a new high in over one year, settling at 96.45 on Friday night, while the Turkish lira fell over 20% against the greenback, reaching a record low of 6.87, after US President Donald Trump announced he was doubling metals tariffs on Turkey. LME aluminium showed downward trend during the day’s trading on Friday August 10 closing at US$ 2039 per tonne. After hitting a high of US$2,117 per tonne overnight, LME aluminium came off and closed at US$2,078.5 per tonne with strong resistance at the 40-day moving average. It is likely to continue to struggle among several moving averages and trade at US$2,060-2,100 per tonne today. As on August 10, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2038.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2039 per tonne;...
On Monday, August 6 Alcoa requested Trump administration for an exemption from aluminium tariffs. The 130 year old aluminium producer was considered to be one of the companies which were benefitted from the tariffs as they faced stiff competition from import. However, the tariffs turned out to be an injury on the producer as it imports much of its aluminium from its Canadian facilities which fall under the tariff list. But Alcoa’s request indicated the counter risks the Trump administration is facing while trying to protect American firms by erecting trade barriers. Businesses that rely on imported materials are facing increased cost pressure, while others that export to overseas markets are being hit with retaliatory tariffs from tariff hit countries like Canada, China, Mexico and the...
The dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would support the currency. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. The day’s trading for aluminium closed at US$ 2118 per tonne yesterday. Aluminium slumped 2.2%. LME aluminium plunged to a low of US$2,068.5 per tonne overnight and closed at US$2,069 per tonne on Thursday night. We expect LME aluminium to trade rangebound at US$2,070-2,090 per tonne today. As on August 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2117 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2118 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2136 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2138 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2173 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2178 per...
Trading in the spot aluminium market in east China stood narrow on Thursday, August 9, compared to the previous day as surging prices jeopardised downstream consumers’ buying interest, Shanghai Metals Market learned. According to SMM, A00 aluminium ingot price clocked a significant hike right from RMB 14290 per tonne, as of August 8, to RMB 14660 per tonne on August 9, indicating surge by RMB 170 per tonne. The SHFE August contract climbed RMB 300 per tonne from overnight as of noon, driven by the industrial action at Alcoa’s Pinjara alumina refinery in Western Australia. Spot discounts in the east settled at RMB 40 per tonne, while transactions in Shanghai hovered at RMB 14630 per tonne to RMB 14660 per tonne and that in Wuxi and Hangzhou at RMB 14620 per tonne to RMB 14660 per tonne and...
National Aluminium Company (Nalco), one of the largest integrated aluminium companies, wears a success hat for recording a fivefold jump in net profit in the first quarter of financial year ending on June 30, 2018. From INR 129 crore in the year-ago period, the state-run firm’s net profit has clocked at INR 687 crore in Q1 FY2018-19, reportedly surpassing the whole net profit of INR 642 crore in FY 2013-14. "As compared to the corresponding quarter of the last year, the growth in net profit has jumped by a whopping 433 per cent, from INR 129 crore to INR 687 crore," Nalco said in a statement. The revenues also jumped 34 per cent to INR 3035.42 crore in Q1 FY2018-19 against INR 1997.43 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year, attributed primarily to the surge in revenue...
Emirates Global Aluminium, the largest industrial company in the United Arab Emirates outside oil and gas, today launches its 2017 sustainability report detailing the organisation’s values, commitments, aspirations and achievements in environmental, social and economic performance. EGA aspires to be measured amongst the world’s leading metals and mining companies in meeting its environmental and social responsibilities. EGA’s sustainability report charts the company’s performance in areas including emissions, safety, technological innovation, community engagement, waste and effluent management and social responsibility. The disclosures made in the report are the outcome of a materiality analysis to identify sustainability topics that warrant the greatest levels of transparency and...
The dollar index slipped 0.07% to 95.098 overnight, while the pound dropped to its lowest level in almost a year on Wednesday. LME aluminium surged and closed at US$2,116.5 per tonne on Wednesday night after closing the day’s trading at US$ 2022 per tonne. The market was buoyed by the news of workers at Alcoa’s Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia walking out of their job indefinitely after they failed to settle a new enterprise agreement. LME aluminium is likely to trade at US$2,110-2,160 per tonne today. As on August 8, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2021 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2022 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2044 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2045 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne,...
On Tuesday, August 7, the Trump administration announced to go ahead with its plan to impose a 25 per cent tariff on US$16 billion worth of Chinese goods for escalating a trade war with Beijing further. As per the plan, the new tariff will come into effect on August 23, on 279 Chinese product lines including electronics, plastic, and railway freight cars. The number of products is lesser this time than the original 284 items proposed on June 15, said the US Trade Representative’s office. This tariff is the second round of duties that the US has imposed on Chinese goods in a dispute over technology. This was proposed during a breakdown of trade talks between the Trump administration and Beijing. An initial round of tariff was placed on US$34 billion of Chinese products on July 6. A week...
The US dollar index softened and closed at 95.165 on Tuesday as the Chinese yuan showed more stability after the country’s central bank on Friday raised the cost of shorting the currency. LME base metals, except for aluminium, rose across the board on Tuesday. The contract closed Tuesday’s trading at US$ 2026.5 per tonne. With a weaker SHFE counterpart, LME aluminium shed early gains and touched a low of US$2,032.5 per tonne on Tuesday night. It is likely to trade at US$2,035-2,055 per tonne today. As on August 7, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2026 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2026.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2052.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2053 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2108 per tonne, and Dec 19...
According to the latest update by Shanghai Metals Market, south China on Tuesday, August 7, saw a narrow trading activity in the spot aluminium market, though slightly better than the previous day. But the SHFE August contract edged lower in the morning, Most transactions in Guangdong were heard at RMB 14440 per tonne to RMB 14450 per tonne, with the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread narrowed to RMB 150 per tonne. However, sellers across the region remained keen to offload their cargoes and some traders showed a little buying interest and made purchases as per the demand. A00 aluminium ingot price showed no significant move against the thin trading on August 7 except being plunged by RMB 10 per tonne from the previous day to stand at RMB 14290 per tonne. On August 8, the price remained the...
India’s retaliatory tariffs on 29 American products have been postponed to 18 th of September, which was originally scheduled on August 4, 2018. This decision came out in the ongoing discussion between the two countries to resolve trade disputes. “The said notification, with effect from the 4th day of August-...shall come into effect from the 18th day of September, 2018,” the government said in a notification. Last week, the department of commerce recommended to the department of revenue to amend the notification for further extension of the countermeasures by next 45 days. The countermeasures are levied on 29 American products worth of US$235 million, including apples, almonds, walnuts, iron and steel products, flat rolled products of stainless steel. Deferring this retaliatory move is...
The US dollar index strengthened further and closed at 95.35 overnight as investors bet that trade wars and a robust US economy would continue to drive the currency higher. Base metals closed mixed overnight. LME aluminium rose over 1% after closing the day’s trading at US$ 2000.50 per tonne, further down from last closing. Strong performance of SHFE also bolstered LME aluminium, which rebounded and closed at US$2,053 per tonne on Monday night. Shanghai Metals Market expects the LME aluminium to trade at US$2,040-2,060 per tonne today. As on August 7, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2000 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2000.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2027 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2028 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands...
UC Rusal, one of the leading aluminium producers in the world, has unveiled its results for the second quarter and the first half of calendar year 2018 ended on June 30, 2018. According to the results revealed, Rusal’s aluminium production in Q2 2018 stood at 939 million tonnes while that in 2017 was at 921 million tonnes. The primary aluminium production in H1 2018 also increased 39,000 tonnes to stand at 1870 million tonnes, against 1831 in H1 2017. Production cost per tonne in Q2 2018 rose to US$ 1672 per tonne from US$ 1497 per tonne in Q2 2017 and that in H1 2018 grew to US$1679 per tonne from US$ 1456 per tonne in H1 2017. Despite the rise in production, Rusal’s sales of primary aluminium and alloys recorded lower in Q2 and H1 of 2018 at 783 million tonnes and 1748 million tonnes...
Vedanta Resources releases Production and Financial Results for the First Quarter ended 30 June 2018. The company reports record quarterly aluminium production at 482,000 tonnes, up 37% YoY and commencement of Odisha bauxite delivery to its refinery. The Lanjigarh refinery produced 325,000 tonnes of alumina in Q1 FY 2019, 7% higher YoY, however 7% lower QoQ due to a temporary break down in the bauxite handling unit. The increase in aluminium production in Q1 FY2019 was primarily driven by ramp up at the Jharsuguda-II smelter. Other than Line 4, which is still under evaluation, all other lines are expected to be fully ramped up by H1 FY2019. Stabilised aluminium production (i.e. production excluding trial run) was 469,000 tonnes in Q1 FY2019 with an exit monthly run rate of 1.9 tonne per...
The US dollar index traded rangebound at highs and closed at 95.2 on Friday. China's offshore yuan rebounded after the country’s central bank on Friday imposed a reserve requirement of 20% on trading of foreign exchange forward contracts. Driven by these developments LME base metals closed mixed on Friday, aluminium dipped 0.49%. LME aluminium traded rangebound on Friday, touching a low of US$2,024.5 per tonne and hitting a high of US$2,049 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade under pressure today within the range of US$2,030-2,050 per tonne given the US-China trade spats. As on August 3, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2014 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2016 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2040 per tonne, 3-months offer...
China’s inventory of primary aluminium had been consistently registering a drop due to limited supplies from smelters. Today, August 6, showed no exception either. The inventory, including SHFE warrants, dropped 5000 tonnes from Thursday, August 2, to stand at 1.776 million tonnes as of August 6, 2018, Shanghai Metals Market found. Fewer arrivals from smelters in Xinjiang accounted for the drop. However, the inventory recorded a slower decline as of today compared with Thursday, August 2, when the inventory witnessed a drop by 14,000 tonnes from July 26 to stand at 1.78 million tonnes. Some of the major Chinese cities recorded a drop in inventory from the previous day. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory dwindled from 760,000 tonnes to 752,000 tonnes, while in Shanghai and Gongyi and...
India is found compassionate towards the United States agreeing to defer its heavy duties on US$ 235 million worth of 29 American goods by 45 days from August 4, upon a request by the US, sources said. This countermeasure by India was a retaliatory act against the Trump administration’s decision to impose additional 25 per cent and 10 per cent tariffs on India’s aluminium and steel supplies to the US. However, deferring this retaliatory move is expected to substantially de-escalate a tariff war between India and the US. It indicates New Delhi would further engage Washington to find a more meaningful outcome to the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations. India is hopeful that this move would finally bring them a relief from those extra metal tariffs levied by the Trump administration. The...
The dollar index rose past 95 on Thursday as trade tension between the US and China grew. China's offshore yuan extended its decline to 6.8798 yuan overnight. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. LME aluminium dipped on Thursday and closed at US$ 2023 per tonne. The contract is likely to trade at US$2,030-2,060 per tonne today. As on August 2, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2022 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2023 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2046 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2047per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2098 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2103 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1192075 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 850500 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 341575...
