Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd is expected to face weaker smelting margins in the second half of 2026 as aluminium supply constraints ease, input costs rise and market sentiment shifts towards a potential surplus in 2027, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research. “The narrative now is increasingly shifting to a potential surplus in 2027. Coupled with falling Japan-Port (MJP) premium and rising alumina as well as carbon anode costs, we foresee sequentially weaker smelting margins in 2H2026,” the research house said in a note on Monday. HLIB Research estimates that Press Metal’s core earnings for the third quarter of 2026 will range between MYR 600 million (USD 146.85 million) and MYR 650 million (USD 159.09 million), representing a decline of 10 per cent to 17 per cent...
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Charles Johnson, President and CEO of the Aluminum Association, addressed the ripple effect of the Middle East conflict on the aluminium industry. According to him, global aluminium markets are under the pressure of “elevated” prices as geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region disrupt supply chains. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain While the situation has spurred short-term uncertainty with the “ closure of the strait ”, the industry is continuously adjusting through alternative sourcing, recycling and shifting trade flows. Supply chains adjust, but gaps remain In response to the logistical constraints around the Gulf region, as well as the supply crunch due to the disruptions surrounding 9 per cent...
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco) finalised a share purchase plan led by its controlling shareholder, Aluminum Corporation of China, along with parties acting in concert, with a total investment of about RMB 1.015 billion (USD 145 million). Chalco announced the plan in April 2025 to signal confidence in its future and support minority shareholders. It aimed to buy A shares and H shares worth between RMB 1 billion (USD 145 million) and RMB 2 billion (USD 292 million), with a limit of up to 2 per cent of the company’s total share capital. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " Over the 12 months, Chinalco and its partners purchased a total of 193,029,583 shares through the Shanghai Stock Exchange...
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 Restricted trade from the Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz and EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter becoming inoperative for a year due to Iranian strikes are seen as an opportunity for China’s aluminium export growth by many market analysts. Whether this ambition may turn real or not is something to be assessed, but it stems from the void being caused in the market due to the Gulf region's inability to serve the global aluminium demand at this moment. The Gulf not only produces 10 per cent of the world’s aluminium but also supports the global supply chain by contributing 9 per cent to the total. In figures, Gulf countries export more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium to the world. As per the International Trade Administration data of 2025,...
The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, notably a US-Israeli movement involving Iran in early 2026, has sent tremors through global aluminium markets. Gulf-region smelters account for roughly 9 per cent of the world’s primary aluminium supply (and over 20 per cent if China and Russia are excluded). Over 6.16 million tonnes per year of aluminium are produced in the Gulf states, and about 75-80 per cent of that is exported to global consumers. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to shipping, exports from Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and other Gulf producers have been disrupted, forcing curtailments and raising fears of a major supply squeeze. As one recently published article by S&P Global notes, “trade via the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping corridor for aluminium – has...
A few hours before the official announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel and Iran conflict, the Iranian media reported that the US-Israel launched strikes on the Iran Aluminium Company (IRALCO), the largest aluminium plant of the country, as well as the Amirkabir Petrochemical Complex in Mahshahr. The facilities have been struck as the US President Donald Trump’s assigned deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz without any official agreement was not observed by the Iranian government. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Located in Arak, central Iran, the Iran Aluminium Company (IRALCO), the country’s largest aluminium production hub, had a production capacity of 160 thousand to 200...
On April 7, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices further rose from the previous close on April 2. There has been a significant rise in the offer settlement price as well as in the forward contracts. Concerning the inventory, there has been a slight dip along with the LME alumina platts price. This indicates that the on-going tension in the Middle East and the sudden attack on the two major aluminium sites owned by EGA and Alba are set to create market discrepancy even further. Both the LME cash bid and offer rose by USD 95 per tonne or 3 per cent, where the bid had shifted from USD 3,504.5 per tonne to USD 3,599.5 per tonne and the offer from USD 3,505 per tonne to USD 3,600 per tonne. Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics A similar...
With a broader shift in the global metals cycle that could reshape earnings expectations, major Indian aluminium companies are drawing renewed investor attention. JPMorgan has upgraded both Vedanta Limited and Hindalco Industries Limited to “overweight”, citing a favourable mix of higher aluminium prices, inventory disruptions and currency movements. The brokerage has also raised price targets, indicating a potential upside of up to 22 per cent. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain However, going beyond near-term upside, the shift is being driven by the sharp decline in the global aluminium supply crunch. Ongoing geopolitical tensions spurred by the Middle East conflict have disrupted key supply chains,...
The American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA) said it supports an executive order issued by Donald Trump to tighten enforcement of aluminium tariffs. Until now, importers had been declaring only the value of the raw aluminium used in products, leaving out the additional value created through processing. This allowed finished aluminium goods to enter the country at lower tariff rates than originally intended. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " The latest order requires importers to declare the full value of aluminium products, ensuring tariffs are applied more accurately. The aluminium tariff stays at 50 per cent under Section 232 rules. The order does not change the tariff rate but clarifies how the...
Executive Summary: The global aluminium sector is feeling the heat of a supply crisis, as major aluminium producers face policy curbs, geopolitical crises, sanctions and tariff hurdles, and environmental setbacks. The war in Iran has further inflated the crisis with shipping disruptions and attacks on oil and aluminium facilities in the West Asian region. Top aluminium producers in 2025 (,000 tonnes ) Country Production 2024 Production 2025 Capacity 2024 Capacity 2025 China 44,000 45,000 44,600 45,000 India 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 Russia 3,880 3,900 4,080 4,080 Canada 3,200 3,300 3,270 3,270 UAE 2,690 2,700 2,790 2,790 Bahrain 1,620 1,600 1,620 1,620 Australia 1,570 1,500 1,730 1,730 Norway 1,300 1,300 1,460 1,460 Source: USGS Global aluminium production in 2025 is estimated at 73.8...
Across major economies – from the United States and European Union to the United Kingdom, Canada, and Africa, aluminium has formally entered the league of critical minerals – not because the metal is rare but it is indispensable for economic and environmental growth. Aluminium, over the period of time, has made itself a non-substitutable element in modern economies through critical applications in industrial growth, defence capability, and decarbonisation. It is also the metal that has built direct relation with global economic structures; hence, any disruption in its supply chain affects employment, trade balances, and industrial output. Economic contribution – a mature industry with strategic weight To all these regions stated above, the aluminium industry supports a substantial share...
The global aluminium price is on a rising trend, reaching a four-year high, especially because of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. In March 2026, the aluminium price rose to USD 3,492 per tonne. In the upcoming African Mining Week (AMW) 2026, which is being scheduled for October 14-16 in Cape Town, the discussion will cover the ongoing and rising challenges and opportunities that are being faced by Africa, especially in the global aluminium supply chain. Africa & the closure of the Strait of Hormuz About 12 per cent of the global aluminium trade is handled via the Strait of Hormuz. However, due to the attacks on industrial sites throughout the Middle East, which is said to contribute nearly 9 per cent of the global output, the Strait of Hormuz had to temporarily shut down,...
中文翻译附于新闻末尾，敬请继续阅读。 The aluminium market isn’t just shifting-it’s being pulled in different directions at once. That is the backdrop against which the AICE 2026 SMM Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo will take place from April 8–10 in Suzhou, China, as the industry navigates shifting supply patterns, evolving pricing structures, and changing trade dynamics. This year’s theme - Global Restructuring of Primary Aluminium: Resource Flows, Low-Carbon Transition, and Market Synergy - comes straight out of what the industry is experiencing on the ground. Multiple disruptions are unfolding at the same time, forcing producers and buyers to rethink how the aluminium value chain will be structured. Abhimanyu Prakash, CEO of AL Circle, a digital platform for the global aluminium ecosystem, will...
Vedanta Limited reported its highest-ever production across several key businesses for the financial year ending March 31, 2026, showing strong overall performance. Alumina production jumped 48 per cent from last year to 2.92 million tonnes. Aluminium output hit a record 2.46 million tonnes, up 1 per cent. These numbers show Vedanta's place in aluminium and its work on more output and better operations. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " In its Zinc India business, mined metal hit a record 1.11 million tonnes, up 2 per cent from last year. Q4 production also rose, thanks to better ore quality and more output. Refined zinc production reached a record 851,000 tonnes for the full year, while fourth-quarter...
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has provided an initial assessment of its operations following recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on its Al Taweelah site, one of the world’s largest aluminium production complexes. EGA said the Al Taweelah facility sustained significant damage as a result of the attacks at Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi. The site, including the smelter and casthouse, power plant, alumina refinery and recycling plant, was fully evacuated, with operations moved into emergency shutdown. In earlier coverage of the incident, AL Circle noted that the March 28 incident also affected other regional aluminium facilities, including Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), with both companies assessing damage while prioritising employee safety. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026...
What began as an overall surge in the metals market towards the beginning of the year has quickly turned far more uneven, as the ongoing Middle East conflict enters its fifth week. While early market sentiment was dominated by fears of a copper crisis, the unfolding reality focuses on a different crisis surrounding aluminium. Global institutions, including the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, have already referred to the conflict as one of the most severe recent energy shocks. Beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, the geopolitical situation is disrupting trade routes, hoisting energy prices and introducing fresh volatility across markets. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across...
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined across the curve on April 2, reflecting a broad-based softening compared to the previous session. The LME aluminium cash bid price fell to USD 3,504.5 per tonne on April 2 from USD 3,583 per tonne on April 1, marking a decline of 2.19 per cent. The cash offer price also dropped to USD 3,505 per tonne from USD 3,583.5 per tonne, down 2.19 per cent day-on-day. Similarly, the 3-month contract registered a notable correction. The bid price decreased to USD 3,424 per tonne from USD 3,523 per tonne, a 2.81 per cent decline, while the offer price slipped to USD 3,425 per tonne from USD 3,525 per tonne, also down 2.84 per cent. Further along the curve, the December 2027 contract weakened as well. The bid price declined to USD 2,945 per...
After the skyrocketing records on March 31 , the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices appeared to ease at the close of the April 1 session. The slightly declining trend was also noticed in the movement of the stocks. However, a rise in the near-term contracts amongst a few other upward records indicates that concerns over supply risk post Iran’s drone and missile strikes on the facilities of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) still remains. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain The LME aluminium cash bid as well as offer prices declined slightly by 0.04 per cent from the previous close. The cash bid slipped to USD 3,583 per tonne from USD 3,584.5 per tonne, while the...
During the celebration of Utkal Dibas on Wednesday, India’s top aluminium provider, Vedanta Aluminium, reaffirmed its long-term dedication to Odisha. The commitment has been shown by the firm in its ambitious plan, with an investment of INR 1.8 lakh crore (USD 21.7 billion) on the horizon and over INR 1 lakh crore (USD 12.0 billion) already put to work. The firm has also highlighted its efforts in creating more than 5 lakh job opportunities to date. The firm operates in Odisha and its production includes aluminium, power generation, iron ore extraction, and other related businesses. Each year, this is deemed to contribute more than INR 9 thousand crore (USD 1.08 billion) to the state’s revenue and is also held responsible for approximately 3 per cent of the state’s Gross State Domestic...
