Guangxi’s newly commissioned capacity continues to release, alumina supply stays high

Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract showed a strong rebound, opening at RMB 2,661 per tonne, dipping to an intraday low of RMB 2,659 per tonne before finding support, then drifting higher to an intraday high of RMB 2,726 per tonne, and finally closing at RMB 2,723 per tonne, near the day's high. The daily candlestick formed a large bullish candle, breaking through multiple moving average resistance levels in one move, with short-term bullish momentum strengthening significantly.

Trading volume expanded sharply, rising by 127,000 lots from the previous trading day to 171,000 lots, as market activity heated up rapidly and bullish capital showed strong willingness to enter. Open interest fell by 49,969 lots to 217,000 lots, as bears liquidated positions on a large scale during the price rise, becoming an important force behind this rebound. Technically, the closing price of RMB 2,723 per tonne has moved above the MA5 (2,688.68), MA10 (2,689.04), MA20 (2,698.09), and MA40 (2,711.25), with the moving average system shifting from a bearish alignment to bullish repair, and the short-term technical picture clearly strengthening.

Overall, the futures market presented a strong rebound pattern of "surging volume, bearish price collapse, and full recovery of moving averages," with bulls taking the initiative in the short term. On the upside, watch resistance in the RMB 2,730-2,750 per tonne zone; if volume continues to expand and prices break through, there is room for the rebound to extend further. On the downside, support is seen at the MA40 (2,711.25) and the RMB 2,700 per tonne round number. After the release of bearish liquidation momentum, the pace of the rebound needs to be monitored, but the short-term bullish pattern is largely established.

Bauxite: As of September 30, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was at USD 72.61 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was at RMB 595 per tonne, up RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 550 per tonne, up RMB 10 per tonne from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged RMB 590 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged RMB 520 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged RMB 365 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged RMB 327.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged RMB 495 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged RMB 400 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Guiyang bauxite (60 per cent/6) averaged RMB 515 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF averaged USD 67.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF averaged USD 60.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite FOB averaged USD 40 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite CIF averaged USD 72 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Malaysian bauxite CIF averaged USD 52 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Malaysian washed bauxite CIF averaged USD 62.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Ghanaian bauxite CIF averaged USD 78 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Indonesian bauxite FOB averaged USD 37 per tonne in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; Turkish bauxite CFR averaged USD 72.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day; Pakistani bauxite FOB averaged USD 58.5 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day.

Alumina spot: On September 30, the SMM alumina index stood at RMB 2,669.17 per tonne, down RMB 0.82 per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at RMB 2,670.93 per tonne, down RMB 1.51 per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at RMB 2,689.67 per tonne, down RMB 0.33 per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at RMB 2,690.60 per tonne, down RMB 1.00 per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at RMB 2,701.06 per tonne, down RMB 0.33 per tonne from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at RMB 2,582.94 per tonne, down RMB 0.22 per tonne from the previous trading day.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 30, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of RMB 43.83 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest traded price as of 11:30.

On September 30, total registered alumina warrants stood at 232,800 tonne, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 3,897 tonne, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 tonne, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 49,599 tonne, up 600 tonne from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 tonne, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 154,400 tonne, flat from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: As of September 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 355 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 35.65 per tonne and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.73. This translates to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately RMB 3,050.18 per tonne, which is RMB 381.01 per tonne higher than the alumina index price.

Summary: As of now, total alumina inventory in China continued to increase, with the pace of inventory buildup accelerating. By segment: raw material inventory at aluminium smelters increased, with downstream stockpiling willingness picking up ahead of the holiday; finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to accumulate, with pressure remaining unabated as production stayed high; port inventory edged down and basically stabilised; inventory piled up in transit and at railway stations increased; warrant inventory rose slightly. On the industry front, weekly alumina production in China continued to rise recently, with growth mainly coming from the sustained release of new capacity in Guangxi, coupled with the full recovery of enterprises in Shanxi that were previously affected by red mud pond issues, while operating rates in Shandong and Henan pulled back somewhat.

Overall supply stayed high, further aggravating the supply-demand surplus. Futures prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, market trading activity declined, and both long and short sides turned cautious and wait-and-see; downstream aluminium smelters mainly purchased as needed, with slight raw material restocking before the holiday, and no concentrated stockpiling was observed. Looking ahead, metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to stay high, existing capacity to remain stable, and the weekly operating rate is expected to continue rising. No maintenance or production cut plans have been reported by enterprises so far. With winter approaching, aluminium smelters will gradually start stockpiling, and supply pressure is expected to keep increasing.

On the inventory side, high production and downstream stocking offset each other, and total alumina inventory nationwide is expected to continue an inventory buildup trend after the holiday. On the price side, the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged and upward momentum is weak, so spot prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a narrow range on a weak note.

Note: This article has been shared by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.