Overview of China's alumina production in December 2024 and forecast for January 2025
According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in December 2024 (31 days) increased by 1.67 per cent M-o-M and 9.80 per cent Y-o-Y. As of December 31, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was approximately 103.02 million tonnes, with actual operating capacity slightly down by 0.44 per cent M-o-M, and the operating rate was 86.30 per cent. For the full year 2024, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 4.86 per cent Y-o-Y.
During the month, environmental protection-related production cuts in Shanxi and maintenance at some capacities in Shandong led to a slight decline in operating capacity. However, as downstream aluminum production also saw reductions during the month, the slight surplus in alumina supply and demand persisted, with the surplus narrowing.
Next Month's Forecast: Entering January, SMM has learned that domestic alumina refineries have no large-scale maintenance plans, and environmental protection-related production cuts may recover. Domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to reach 89.77 million tonnes per year.
On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. For imported ore, as of December 27, domestic port bauxite weekly arrivals totaled 3.66 million tonnes, up 637,900 tonnes from the previous week. Weekly departures from major ports in Guinea totaled 3.2 million tonnes, up 162,000 tonnes from the previous week, while weekly departures from major ports in Australia totaled 1.1807 million tonnes, up 448,400 tonnes from the previous week. The lifting of the rainy season's impact has led to a recovery in domestic bauxite arrivals. In December, the average weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 3.428 million tonnes per week, up 241,700 tonnes per week from November's 3.19 million tonnes per week. Additionally, SMM has learned that Guinea's average weekly bauxite shipments for the first three weeks of December were 3.47 million tonnes per week, significantly improving from the pre-rainy season average of 3.15 million tonnes per week in June 2024, which is expected to support the high operating capacity of alumina in the future.
SMM will continue to monitor the ramp-Up of new and resumed alumina capacities.
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