China’s domestic aluminium processing industry saw a 12.64 per cent downturn in the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) during October 2024, reflecting a transition from peak to the traditional off-season. Although the PMI level in the said month stood above 50, the worsened trend in the preceding month due to low orders on hand amid the full-fledged traditional off-season is likely to bring the November PMI below the 50 per cent mark.
According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the PMI index for China’s domestic aluminium processing industry was 53.9 per cent, compared to 61.7 per cent in September. The weaker PMI for aluminium plate, sheet and strip industry, aluminium foil, industrial aluminium extrusion, and primary aluminium alloy mainly contributed to the overall decline.
Product-type Purchasing Manager Index
The PMI for the aluminium plate, sheet and strip industry decreased 15.2 per cent M-o-M to 57.7 per cent in October. A slight weakness in orders at the end of the month, coupled with reduced operating rates in Henan, a major province for aluminium plate/sheet and strip production, due to the resumption of environmental protection regulations with the onset of winter-heating season, caused the decline in PMI. With the arrival of the traditional off-season in November, the PMI is expected to fall further in line with declining production and sales.
The PMI for the aluminium foil industry in October 2024 also dwindled M-o-M by 13.7 percentage points, reaching 57.8 per cent. Despite the steep fall, the PMI stood much above the 50 mark due to the traditional peak season until October with ample orders. The PMI for the primary aluminium alloy industry slipped by 15.4 points M-o-M, reaching below the 50 per cent mark. According to SMM, the PMI in October stood at 47.6 per cent, as some enterprises experienced sluggish orders at the end of October. Both the aluminium foil and primary aluminium alloy industries expect to experience PMIs below the 50 mark.
Similarly, the PMI index for the construction aluminium extrusion industry hovered below the 50 mark in October but experienced a slight M-o-M increase from 47.73 per cent to 49.53 per cent. The monthly increment was due to improved orders at some construction aluminium extrusion enterprises in South China, Anhui, and Shandong. The production index of the industry was 51.84 per cent in October, while the new orders index was 51.18 per cent.
The comprehensive PMI index for the industrial extrusion industry in October also fell sharply from the previous month but managed to stand above 50 per cent. With enterprises receiving new orders, the stable demand for industrial extrusion cushioned the PMI index to an extent, bringing it to 52.92 per cent. The production and new orders index in October stood at 55.31 per cent, as some enterprises bagged new orders from Japan and South Korea.
The PMIs of the aluminium wire and cable and secondary aluminium industries replicated a similar trend in October. They decreased M-o-M but managed to stand above the 50 per cent benchmark. While the PMI for aluminium wire and cable stood at 53.4 per cent, the PMI for secondary aluminium was recorded at 59.8 per cent, owing to stable demand and strong operating rates.
