LME, SHFE aluminium close with gains but a strong dollar to keep the lid on prices

The possible infrastructure development plan from the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have finally livened up the commodities market a bit. The base metal prices which were heading downward reversed their trends and responded favourably before the week ended on November 18, Friday. LME aluminium prices inched higher by 1.15 per cent to close at US$1,712/mt on Friday from a previous low of US$1,692.50/mt on Thursday.

According to the Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium that struggled at the 40-day moving average last week will range between US$1,680-1,705/mt on Monday, November 21, with support.

The current LME Aluminium Official Cash Buyer Price stands at 1,711.50/mt. The Cash Seller & Settlement price is at US$1,712/mt, 3-months Buyer price is at US$1,699.50/mt and 3-months Seller price is at US$1,700/mt. The LME official Opening Stock of the metal is recorded at 2157600 tonnes.

In China, aluminium traded on Shanghai Metal Exchange closed at US$2,065/mt on Friday last week. The contract edged higher on Monday to open at US2,101/mt.

Base metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are expected to remain subdued due to downward pressures from a strong dollar, SMM foresees. SHFE 1701 aluminium stabilized above the 20-day moving average. The contract will move at RMB 13,450-13,650/mt on Monday, says SMM.

In China’s spot market, aluminium is likely to trade at premiums of RMB 320-360/mt on Monday.

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China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading), a full subsidiary under Chalco responsible for alumina and aluminium sales, cut aluminium prices it offered in China major markets on Monday, the firm announced online.   

The revised aluminium prices are as follows:

Unit: yuan/tonne  


China Aluminium Inventory Update:

China aluminium stocks have been growing for the past three consecutive weeks, SMM data reveals. The growth can be partly attributed to the release of new as well as restarted capacity and partly to the downstream manufacturers putting on hold their purchases in the wake of high aluminium prices. The buoyant phase also saw volumes of imported aluminium ingots flowing into the market which further added to the inventory rise, SMM observed.

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