
Base metals dipped for the most part on slower growth of China's economy in the second quarter. The key development today is the release of US industrial production data for June. LME aluminium jumped to a high of US$2,074 per tonne and closed above the five-day moving average last night. The contract finally closed at US$ 2130 per tonne on yesterday. US$ Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,030-2,075 per tonne today amid market expectation of the US lifting its sanctions against Russia. LME is expected to get support from the positive market fundamentals generated by improved relations between the two countries.

As on July 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2125 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2130 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2057 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2062 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2122 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2127 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1155700 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 976575 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 179125 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2031.31per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2083 per tonne on July 17 from US$ 2073 per tonne on July 16.
As shorts and longs diverged, the SHFE 1809 contract traded rangebound around RMB 14,000 per tonne level during the day after it touched a low of RMB 13,970 per tonne. Dragged down by plunging SHFE lead and zinc, the SHFE aluminium contract tumbled to a low of RMB 13,990 per tonne and closed at RMB 14,035 per tonne. The SHFE/LME price ratio dipped to 6.8 overnight. With strong support at the RMB 14,000 per tonne level, the contract is seen trading at RMB 13,970-14,100 per tonne today. Spot discounts are expected to widen to RMB 90-50 per tonne.
SMM expects the 1809 contract to remain weak in the short term as alumina prices rebound but consumption weakens.
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