
The US dollar fell on Tuesday ahead of an expected US interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. LME base metals, except for aluminium, closed lower on Tuesday. SHFE aluminium rose 0.2%.
After a weeklong upward movement, LME has started its downturn to a level below early September. Three-month LME aluminium slid to a six-day low of US$1,778 per tonne on Tuesday, before it rebounded to finish the trading day 0.31% higher at US$1,793 per tonne overnight. LME aluminium is expected to trade rangebound between US$1,770-1,820 per tonne today, with strong resistance from the 40- and 60-day moving averages.
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As on September 17, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1746 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1746.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1778 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1779 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1850 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1855 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 905725 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 706800 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 198925 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1789 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The most-liquid SHFE November contract plunged to the lowest since September yesterday, as longs departed after the contract opened at RMB 14,270 per tonne, sending it down to RMB 14,205 per tonne. The contract regained part of the losses and closed at RMB 14,240 per tonne, down 0.28% on the day. The 1911 contract gained 0.18% to close at RMB 14,275 per tonne overnight, with gains capped by the 20-day moving averages. Short-covering primarily accounted for overnight increase. The SHFE 1911 aluminium is expected to waver between RMB 14,170-14,300 per tonne today, with spot premiums of RMB 10-30 per tonne over the 1910 contract.
Expectations of higher supply and sluggish consumption in the fourth quarter sustained the backwardation structure in the SHFE 1910-2001 contracts.
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