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15 DECEMBER 2016 AL CIRCLE

LME and Chinese aluminium expected to diverge as U.S. dollar index rises after Fed rate hike

EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

LME Aluminium broke through the 5-day moving average as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rate in yesterday's meeting. The contract after trading at highs throughout the day closed at US$1,752/mt on Wednesday, marginally down by 0.17 per cent from Tuesday. With the U.S. dollar index advancing to 102, LME aluminium is expected to diverge in tandem with other base metals; but Shanghai Metals Market says the contract will still hover at highs within the range of US$1,725-1,750/mt on Thursday, December 15.

As on Decmber 14, the LME Official CASH Buyer Price of aluminium stands at US$1751.5/mt, CASH Seller & Settlement price is US$1752/mt, 3M Buyer price is US$1741/mt, and 3M Seller price is US$1742/mt. The total LME Official Opening stock of aluminium is estimated at 2069975 mt.

News
LME Aluminium premiums for the four major regions have remained unchanged since its last revision on December 2. LME Aluminium US Premium, as on December 13, is recorded as US$170, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$80, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$70, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15.

Aluminium traded on Shanghai Metal Exchange is following a downward trend. With the US dollar index rising, the Chinese yuan was depreciated to 6.95. The contract on SME closed at US$1,836/mt on Thursday, down 2.39 per cent from the previous day.

Base metals traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange are predicted to diverge today. SHFE 1702 aluminium will range between RMB 12,800-13,000/mt on Thursday, says SMM.

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Key macroeconomic indicators December manufacturing PMIs from the U.S., Germany and Europe, New York Fed’s and Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index in December and U..S November CPI will be released today. “The dollar surged as the highly-anticipated rate hike by US’s Federal Reserve came true, and Shanghai prices will feel pressures from a strong dollar to move divergently on Thursday,” SMM says.  

Spot aluminium in China’s domestic market will trade at discounts of RMB 20/mt to premiums of RMB 20/mt on Thursday, predicts SMM.

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EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

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