LME aluminium to stay at highs; technicals remain positive & inventory at all-time low

LME aluminium recovered from its recent lows and climbed to US$2,107.50 per tonne on Tuesday, September 19, as positions dropped sharply, indicating risk aversion. The rise of 1.95 per cent from its earlier close of US$2,067 per tonne on September 18 proves that the technical side is positive for the light metal. Shanghai Metals Market forecasts that LME aluminium will range at US$2,110-2,140 per tonne on Wednesday, September 20.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may end its current bounce around a resistance at US$2,148 per tonne, and then fall towards a support at US$2,103.

As on September 19, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,107 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,107.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,131.50 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,132 per tonne, Dec3 Bid Price is US$2,258 per tonne, and Dec3 Offer Price is US$2,263 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1306650 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1108800 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 197850 tonnes.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has edged higher from US$2,469 per tonne on Monday, September 19, to US$2,490 per tonne on Wednesday, September 20.

During Tuesday’s night trading, base metals at Shanghai Futures Exchange showed signs of rallying, after registering a drop initially. SMM predicts that SHFE 1711 aluminium will move in a wide range of RMB 16,450-16,700 per tonne on Wednesday, September 20. Traders should keep an eye on possible declines during the day’s trading hours.

In east China spot aluminium market, spot discounts over SHFE 1710 aluminium are expected to range at RMB 210-170 per tonne on Wednesday.