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04 NOVEMBER 2016 AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium set for further gains while SHFE aluminium is likely to diverge

EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

Despite uncertainty persisting among traders ahead of the US elections next week, base metals mostly rose overnight supported by multiple macroeconomic factors, barring a few on global commodity exchanges. LME aluminium broke through the US$1,700/mt limit to close at US$1,726/mt after Thursday’s night trading. The reversal from the dip aluminium recorded a day before on Wednesday, November 2, at US$1,709/mt can be attribute in part to a rise in energy prices, say experts.

During the aluminium price rally reported a week earlier, analysts said rising thermal power and alumina costs in most countries, especially in China, and a significant uptick in demand for the metal used in beverage cans as well as aircrafts were the key supporting factors. The quick reversal from the temporary dip further approves of this observation.  

Demand from China’s infrastructure and construction sectors has been strong so far this year. Automotive sector too has continued its robust pace through September. Analysts have little reason to believe that this trend will discontinue in the near term.

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LME aluminium will move at US$1,720-1,740/mt on Friday, November 4, SMM said in an early morning forecast.

LME aluminium West-Europe premium increased slightly to stand at US$80/mt while premiums for the US, East Asia, and South-east Asia markets remained same at US$150, US$65, and US$15 respectively.

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In China, aluminium traded on Shanghai Metals Exchange closed at US$2,109/mt on Thursday and opened at US$2,108 on Friday, November 4, a marginal dip unlikely to sustain through the day.

However, SMM says, base metals prices on the SHFE will likely diverge on Friday due to cautious trading across China’s key consuming prices as transport capacity remains a cause of concern.  SHFE 1612 aluminium will range between RMB 13,400-13,600/mt.

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EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 2MINS READ

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