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15 FEBRUARY 2017 AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium firms up but strengthening dollar remains a concern

EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 3MINS READ

LME aluminium has edged higher. The contract rose by 1.36 per cent on Tuesday from the previous day's closing of US$1,867.50 per tonne, to close at US$1,893 per tonne after night trading. However, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) in its analysis said, the growth in LME aluminium was restrained by the hawkish demand projected in the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen. According to their forecast, the lightmetal contract is expected to challenge US$1,900 per tonne and trade at US$1,880-1,905 per tonne on Wednesday, February 15.

As on February 14, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,892 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$1,893 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,900.50 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,901 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,943 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,948 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 2220775 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1630950 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 589825 tonnes.

As on February 13, LME Aluminium US Premium stands at US$215 (up from US$205), LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$85, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$95 and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15.

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In China, the benchmark price of aluminium on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has surged higher at US$2,058 per tonne on Wednesday, up 2.59 per cent from Tuesday's price of US$2,006 per tonne.

Aluminium contracts traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also logged a rise on Tuesday. SHFE 1704 aluminum after opening at RMB 14,085 per tonne edged higher at RMB 14,435 per tonne- the highest since September 2014. SHFE 1703 aluminum gained strength under the combined effect of capital inflows and various other positive macroeconomic data. Both the contracts are expected to gain further in the near term, predicts SMM.

Spot aluminium in China's domestic market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 200-160 per tonne on Wednesday.    

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Despite the recent rise, SMM believes a stronger dollar will eventually weigh on the base metal prices on SHFE.

The National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) has reported China’s nonferrous metals price index was 80.96 in January, down 0.59 on the month but up 20 year-on-year. The index for aluminium was down 0.81 in the previous month.

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EDITED BY : DIPANWITA GUPTA 3MINS READ

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