LME aluminium falls further; SME is stable before the upcoming CPC National Congress

Aluminum prices are slowly falling after the last rise on October 9. As the news of winter capacity cut during November-December are fading away positive market sentiments are slowing down too putting pressure on price. After closing at US$2,124 per tonne on Wednesday, October 11, it came down slightly to US$2,117.5 per tonne after night trading on Thursday, October 12. SMM expects LME aluminium to move little up and challenge the 5-day moving average and hover within USD 2,140-2,165/t today.

According to a Reuters’ analysis LME aluminium may retest a support at $2,130 per tonne, a break below which could cause a further loss to the next support at $2,117. Analysts further say that resistance is at $2,158/t, and a break above this may lead to a gain to $2,175. A break above $2,175 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

As on October 12, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,117 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,117.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,142 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,143 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,192 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,197 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1230750 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 969700 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 261050 tonnes. 

SME and SHFE aluminium price trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has however offset the drop in LME and has risen from US$ 2439 per tonne on Thursday, October 12, to US$ 2472 per tonne on Friday October 13. In east China’s spot aluminium market, spot discounts are expected to hold stable at RMB 120-80/mt over SHFE 1710 aluminium contract on Thursday, October 12.   .   

All base metals finished in the positive territory. According to SMM SHFE 1712 aluminium will rise to RMB 16,480-16,680/t today. SMM EXPECTS prices to remain stable in the near term.