
LME aluminium continued to weaken overnight and closed the first trading day of the week at US$2022 per tonne on Monday March 26, and SMM expects this downward trend to continue today. SMM sees it trading at $2,035-2,060 per tonne today. According to Reuters, most base metals prices climbed on Tuesday, lifted by hopes that a trade war between top metals consumer China and the United States may be avoided. However, downward pressure will continue in case of LME aluminium.

As on March 26, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2021.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2022 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2047 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2048 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2098 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2103 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1273150 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1038400 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 234750 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering low at US$ 2049.76 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased from US$ 2147 per tonne on March 26 to US$ 2182 per tonne on March 27, while the market is worried over the U.S. trade policies, uncertainty on the domestic aluminium production control and downstream consumption growth.
China aluminium inventories declined yesterday and the SHFE aluminium contract traded weakly today. SMM noticed an outflow of funds in the Shanghai market. SMM expects SHFE aluminium to trade at RMB 13,650-13,850 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 110-70 per tonne. Destocking activity and simmering trade tensions between China and the US will give more guidance to the market.
The US dollar dipped to around 89 overnight as trade war concerns improved. The US dollar is likely to remain rangebound and decline in the short term. Base metals saw mixed trading last night, and this trend is likely to continue in the short term.
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