LME aluminium fails to draw support from a weak dollar; drops below US$1,900/t

LME aluminium failed to hold its ground and plunged below US$1,900 per tonne overnight as crude oil prices fell majorly due to ongoing Middle East tension. The key economic indicator presented a gloomy outlook despite OPEC move to extend production cuts. LME aluminium also failed to draw support from a weak US dollar which traded near a seven-month low on Tuesday, June 6. The light metal traded globally closed at US$1,893 per tonne at the end of last night’s trading, down 1.2 per cent from the previous close of US$1,917 per tonne on Monday, June 5.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) forecast suggests: aluminium prices on LME will continue to struggle around US$1,900 per tonne and fluctuate in the range of US$1,895-1,915 per tonne on Wednesday, June 7.

As on June 6, LME official cash buyer aluminium price stands at US$1,892 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price is US$1,893 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,889.50 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,890 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,918 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,923 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1473050 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1034950 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 438100 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on June 5, remain fairly unchanged at their last recorded levels. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, LME Aluminium US Premium has dropped to US$200, and LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is down at US$85 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has risen slightly to US$2,002 per tonne on Wednesday, June 7 from US$1,996 per tonne a day before. 

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1707 aluminium opened at RMB 13,680 per tonne on Tuesday, June 6, and then climbed to RMB 13,715 per tonne due to short selling. Later during the day’s trading hours, the contract rallied to RMB 13,745 per tonne before closing down at RMB 13,675 per tonne. SMM suggests that the weakness in SHFE 1707 is likely to continue in the short term in tandem with LME aluminium. SHFE 1707 aluminium is predicted to move between RMB 13,700-13,850 per tonne on Wednesday, June 7.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 60-20 per tonne over SHFE 1706 aluminium contract on Wednesday, June 7, SMM said.

The market focus will be on US crude oil inventories and MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US last week, all due for release today.