
LME aluminium fell further and closed at US$ 2179 per tonne yesterday from US$2220.50 per tonne on Monday. Then the contract broke the US$2,200 per tonne level overnight as the US dollar index registered a fresh high in 11 months. Without support from fundamentals and with the growth in the US dollar and trade tensions, Shanghai Metals Market sees further downward room for LME aluminium. It is likely to trade at US$2,160-2,195 per tonne today.
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As on June 19, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2178.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2179 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2178 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2179 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2203 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2208 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock slightly dropped to 1136925 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 897600 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 239325 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2202.21per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2180 per tonne on June 19 from US$ 2221 per tonne on June 20.
As longs cut their positions, the SHFE 1808 contract slumped twice to a low of RMB 14,070 per tonne in the afternoon yesterday. Despite a continuous decline in social inventory over the weekend, investors cut their long positions on the price drop in alumina and lingering tension on US-China trade war. On Monday, the US slapped over 167% in anti-dumping duties on China’s aluminium alloy sheets.
As shorts took profit and left, the SHFE 1808 contract rebounded to a high of RMB 14,175 per tonne overnight. It then hovered around the daily moving average within a narrow range. SMM expects the contract to trade weakly and test the RMB 14,000 per tonne level today. It is likely to trade at RMB 14,000-14,200 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 60-20 per tonne.
The US dollar index registered a fresh high in 11 months on Tuesday and closed at 94.98 overnight, up 0.25%. Key factors to watch today include the US current account for the first quarter, existing homes sales in May, oil inventory data for the week ended June 15 from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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